Tag Archive 'China'

Sep 12 2008

“In-sourcing”: a new trend among US manufacturers?

U.S. companies are rethinking manufacturing in China - Sep. 11, 2008

As the US presidential campaign trudges ever forward, both Obama and McCain have had much to say about “job creation” in the USA. Elaborate plans aimed at retraining workers displaced by globalization, arming them with 21st century skills that will enable them to thrive in our advanced economy, and assure that the hardships imposed by free trade are minimal and all Americans have the skills they need to find employment. These are good goals for America, but even as they preach their job creation plans across the country, right under the candidates’ noses jobs are being created thanks to the invisible hand of the market economy.

Talk of a reverse migration of manufacturing from China to the U.S. has been buzzing across union halls and factory floors, corporate boardrooms and Wall Street.

The cost of shipping outsourced goods from China to U.S. customers has doubled in just two years thanks to high oil prices, and labor costs in China are rising sharply.

“There’s a shortage of technical and managerial talent,” reports Anand Sharma, CEO of TBM Consulting Group. “To attract managers Chinese companies are talking about salary increases of 15% to 30% year-over-year.”

The phenomenon of jobs being “in-sourced” to America after a decade or two of being done by Chinese workers may seem surprising. Certainly, wages are still lower in China than in the US labor market. This is true, however, the demand for highly skilled labor in China is driving wages up higher and higher, due to its relative scarcity in a country where reliable, well-educated factory managers are nearly fully employed by the thousands of foreign and Chinese firms operating plants there. Competition among producers means the only way to attract new managers is to continually offer higher wages. This leads to a form of “wage-spiral inflation” where rising costs lead to higher priced output.

Despite its much smaller work force, the percentage of American workers with the managerial and technical skills needed to run a plant is much higher than in China, and the weak manufacturing sector growth in the US has meant relative wages between the US and China are closer than ever before.

Take into consideration the rising cost of fuel and the fact that China’s economy is producing at or beyond full employment, and it becomes clear why manufacturing certain products in China has become less attractive to American firms. To be sure, not all manufacturing jobs are being “in-sourced” back to the US. As Chinese wages climb and skilled labor becomes more scarce, the giant’s Asian neighbors are beginning to enjoy the re-allocative effects of the “invisible hand”.

…plenty of manufacturers will continue looking for ever cheaper places to produce. In fact, as the cost of doing business in China rises, many companies - including Chinese firms - are shifting their production to less expensive markets, such as Vietnam.

Discussion questions:

  1. What is the “invisible hand” referred to in the post above?
  2. How do higher wages in China benefit Americans? How do they harm Americans?
  3. Some critics of free trade argue that multi-national corporations exploit workers in developing countries. Does the article above illustrate give an example of exploitation? Discuss…

9 responses so far

May 19 2008

China’s “silver bullet” - a strong RMB could solve her biggest economic woes…

Asia Sentinel - The Answer for China’s Inflation
Two goals recently voiced by the Chinese leadership: increased consumer spending and reduced inflation. These are worthy goals for policymakers to pursue; if accomplished, they will mean increased well-being for the average Demand-pull inflation caused by increase in consumptionChinese household, which will enjoy more goods and services at lower prices.

The problem is, increased consumption usually means rising prices, as can be clearly illustrated in an aggregate demand / aggregate supply diagram. Household spending makes up somewhere around 40% of China’s GDP, exports, government spending and investment account for the rest. Whenever one component of total expenditures increase in the economy, all other things equal, the price level will rise.

Only two things could happen to make the Chinese leadership’s goal of increased consumer spending and stable prices a reality: either productivity in the economy must increase more rapidly than consumer spending, shifting aggregate supply outward, or another component of aggregate demand must be reduced more rapidly than consumption increases, offsetting the increase in overall expenditures cause by rising consumption.

So what magical combination of fiscal and monetary policy can be employed to both increase consumption and stabilize the price level? The answer may not rest purely in the realm of domestic macroeconomic policy-making, but rather in the foreign exchange markets, where a weak RMB has kept domestic consumption low and net exports (thus the price level) high. Allowing the RMB to appreciate should make “magic” happen and lead to rising domestic consumption and disinflation simultaneously:

A stronger currency, commensurate with China’s increased economic strength, would both tamp down inflation and allow Chinese consumers to buy more goods and services. However, for reasons not entirely clear to me, or few others for that matter, China’s leaders are resisting this simple and beneficial solution.

The Chinese leadership’s stated goal in prodding their citizens to spend more is to decrease their economy’s dependence on exports. If the Chinese, who currently save 50 percent of their incomes, saved less, more of their production would be consumed locally. As a result, China would be less vulnerable to economic downturns abroad. Without a vibrant domestic market, over-leveraged Americans will apparently remain China’s most important customers.

A strengthened yuan would lower the real costs of goods for domestic consumers and allow the Chinese themselves to compete more evenly with consumers in other nations to whom they currently send the fruits of their labor. As goods become more affordable in China, the Chinese would naturally consume more. A rising yuan would therefore kill two birds with one stone: it would reverse recent consumer price increases and it would induce Chinese consumers to buy their own products.

Some members of the US Congress estimated sometime last year that the Chinese currency was undervalued by 27%, leading certain politicians to call for an across the board tariff on all Chinese imports to the United States. Such protectionist sentiment was not uncommon 12 months ago, but as America faces its own economic slowdown, compounded by rising inflation and the falling value of the dollar, such calls for more taxes on imports have disappeared from Washington.

The sensible action for the Chinese to take in response to its own overheating economy (letting the RMB appreciate in order to relieve inflation and encourage domestic consumption) could spell economic doom for the US. As China adopts a “strong yuan” policy, its demand for US dollar-denominated financial assets, including government debt, will decline, reducing demand in the US bond market, lowering bond prices and driving up interest rates in the US. Higher US rates will discourage investment and consumption, exacerbating the slowdown already underway in America. Furthermore, reduced demand for US assets by China will cause demand for the dollar to slide in foreign exchange markets. Since much of American’s household spending is on imports, inflation will rise in America as not only Chinese goods, but all imports, are now more expensive to Americans.

Usually in economics class, we adopt the frame of mind that economics is not a zero-sum game. In other words, through free trade based on comparative advantage and specialization, individuals and nations will benefit due to increased total output, increased productivity, higher incomes, and greater variety of goods and services produced within and among communities and nations. In the case of China and the US today, on the other hand, we appear to be in a situation where increased consumption by Chinese may be achievable only at the expense of American consumers, who because of rising interest rates and a falling dollar, may be forced to live “within their means” for the first time in decades.

Discussion questions:

  1. Why is a strong RMB necessary to simultaneously increase consumption and reduce inflation in China?
  2. Why would interest rates in the US rise if China adopted a “strong RMB” policy?
  3. Would Americans be better off without trade with China? What about the statement that Americans will be worse off if China is to achieve greater levels of domestic consumption?

No responses yet

May 15 2008

Images of destruction and despair - the Sichuan earthquake, May 12, 2008

2008 Sichuan Earthquake - Wikipedia

The following slideshow was sent to my colleague Brian Compton (who forwarded it to me) from his contact at Habitat for Humanity, China. The pictures were all taken in the last 72 hours since the magnitude 7.9 earthquake struck China’s Sichuan province on Monday afternoon this week.

This collection of images tells the story of suffering and despair experienced by the victims of this natural disaster.

SlideShare | View | Upload your own

2 responses so far

May 14 2008

China’s economy shaky after earthquake

FT.com / Asia-Pacific / China - Economy escapes lasting damage from quake

While hundreds of thousands of Sichuan residents in China’s west await the arrival of relief and death tolls approach 15,000 following Monday’s 7.9 earthquake, analysts have begun to assess the quake’s potential economic impact here in China:

The biggest potential economic risk from the earthquake will be on inflation – 8.5 per cent in April – which has emerged in the past year as the principal threat to the economy. Sichuan is China’s largest pig producer – rising pork prices were the initial reason for the jump in inflation last year – and a big rice producer.

“We expect the earthquake to further fuel inflationary expectations in some parts of China due to possible supply shortages as a result of disruption in transportation,” said Ting Lu, an economist at Merrill Lynch.

However, although the earthquake would probably have a short-term impact on prices in the immediate region, economists said it would do little to disrupt agricultural production in the province.

Moreover, national food prices would be affected only if there was sustained disruption to the transport links between agricultural areas of Sichuan and the rest of the country, which appeared unlikely.

Shanghai’s stock market fell 1.8 per cent on Tuesday, and market regulators suspended trading in 66 companies that have significant operations in the region.

Companies that could be hurt by the earthquake include toll road operator Sichuan Expressway, China Telecom, which has a large fixed-line operation in the region, and those in the insurance sector.

Theory suggests that in times when inflation is already high, as currently in China, then a supply shock of even the slightest severity could trigger the expectation of future rice and pork price increases. This expectation may spurn a speculative bout of of food purchases just as supplies are tightened because of the earthquake. The simultaneous speculative increase in demand and quake-triggered contraction in supply may bring about just the price increases that analysis predict.

I won’t be surprised if inflation numbers for May reveal something greater than the 8.5% (22% rise in food prices) experienced in April. Despite economists’ optimism that the quake will have little effect in the long-run, I would predict that in short-run China’s already unstable price levels will see even sharper rises. Might inflation reach double digits in May?

On a personal note, we here at SAS are praying for the victims of the Sichuan quake. Last October my wife and I led 24 tenth graders on a five day cycling trip through the heart of the region where the quake struck. We started at the panda reserve in Chengdu (where thankfully all pandas survived) and rode 100 km northwest to Dujiangyan, the ancient city in the footills of the Himalayas where, sadly, 900 schoolchildren perished when their building collapsed.

Reports indicate that this beautiful city in the hills, home to the world’s oldest (2300 years!) irrigation project running through the heart of the city has been left in ruins. Below is a picture of me, my wife, and the lucky SAS students who cycled through this beautiful region of Sichuan Province last October. The bridge behind us was in the heart of ancient Dujiangyan, only miles from the earthquake’s epicenter. We hope that the suffering in Sichuan is quickly alleviated and that the victims find shelter and solace in the coming days and weeks.

Dujiangyan, Sichuan Province, China. October 2007. SAS China Alive

One response so far

Apr 25 2008

“Two Million Minutes”

Order the DVD - Two Million Minutes

Just how flat is the world? I was chatting with a friend from my youth via Facebook’s new chat feature last night. We went to Carmel High School together in the upscale suburbs of Indianapolis, Indiana, until I moved to Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia during my sophomore year. It has been 12 years since I had chatted with this friend. It turns out she’s become an elementary school teacher herself in Indianapolis, and she was surprised and excited to hear that I’d become a teacher and was working here in Shanghai.

Sarah directed my attention to a film she had just seen that she thought I might be interested in. I am posting the trailer here, because I’m dying to know if anyone out there has seen this film. I am particularly interested in it because it features students from both Carmel High School, where I did my first year and a half of my own “2 million minutes” (the name of the film refers to the number of minutes in the four years it takes to get through high school) before moving overseas as a 10th grader, as well as students here in Shanghai and Bangalore, India. The theme appears to be the vast divide in the content covered in the US vs. in developing countries with whom tomorrow’s graduates will be competing in the global economy.

Here’s the trailer. If anyone’s seen this film, please leave your comments here. I am ordering the DVD myself as I write this!

Two Million Minutes Trailer

23 responses so far