What makes oligopolistic markets, which are characterized by a few large firms, so different from the other market structures we study in Microeconomics? Unlike in more competitive markets in which firms are of much smaller size and one firm’s behavior has little or no effect on its competitors, an oligopolist that decides to lower its prices, change its output, expand into a new market, offer new services, or adverstise, will have powerful and consequential effects on the profitability of its competitors. For this reason, firms in oligopolistic markets are always considering the behavior of their competitors when making their own economic decisions.

To understand the behavior of non-collusive oligopolists (non-collusive meaning a few firms that do NOT cooperate on output and price), economists have employed a mathematical tool called Game Theory. The assumption is that large firms in competition will behave similarly to individual players in a game such as poker. Firms, which are the “players” will make “moves” (referring to economic decisions such as whether or not to advertise, whether to offer discounts or certain services, make particular changes to their products, charge a high or low price, or any other of a number of economic actions) based on the predicted behavior of their competitors.

If a large firm competing with other large firms understands the various “payoffs” (referring to the profits or losses that will result from a particular economic decision made by itself and its competitors) then it will be better able to make a rational, profit-maximizing (or loss minimizing) decision based on the likely actions of its competitors. The outcome of such a situation, or game, can be predicted using payoff matrixes. Below is an illustration of a game between two coffee shops competing in a small town.

In the game above, both SF Coffee and Starbuck have what is called a dominant strategy. Regardless of what its competitor does, both companies would maximize their outcome by advertising. If SF coffee were to not advertise, Starbucks will earn more profits ($20 vs $10) by advertising. If SF coffee were to advertise, Starbucks will earn more profits ($12 vs $10) by advertising. The payoffs are the same given both options for SF Coffee. Since both firms will do best by advertising given the behavior of its competitor, both firms will advertise. Clearly, the total profits earned are less when both firms advertise than if they both did NOT advertise, but such an outcome is unstable because the incentive for both firms would be to advertise. We say that advertise/advertise is a “Nash Equilibrium” since neither firm has an incentive to vary its strategy at this point, since less profits will be earned by the firm that stops advertising.

As illustrated above, the tools of Game Theory, including the “payoff matrix”, can prove helpful to firms deciding how to respond to particular actions by their competitors in oligopolistic markets. Of course, in the real world there are often more than two firms in competition in a particular market, and the decisions that they must make include more than simply to advertise or not. Much more complicated, multi-player games with several possible “moves” have also been developed and used to help make tough economic decisions a little easier in the world of competition.

Game theory as a mathematical tool can be applied in realms beyond oligopoly behavior in Economics.  In each of the videos below, game theory can be applied to predict the behavior of different “players”. None of the videos portray a Microeconomic scenario like the one above, but in each case a payoff matrix can be created and behavior can be predicted based on an analysis of the incentives given the player’s possible behaviors.

Assignment: Watch each of the five videos below. For each one, create a payoff matrix showing the possible “plays” and the possible “payoffs” of the game portrayed in the video. Predict the outcome of each game based on your understanding of incentives and the assumption that humans act rationally and in their own self-interest.

“Batman – the Dark Night” – the Joker’s ferry game: the

“Princess Bride” – where’s the poison?:

“Murder by Numbers” – the interrogation:

“Golden Balls” – split or steal:

“The Trap” – the delicate balance of terror:

Discussion Questions:

1. Why is oligopoly behavior more like a game of poker than the behavior of firms in more competitive markets?
2. What does it mean that firms in oligopolistic markets are “inter-dependent” of one another?
3. Among the videos above, which games ended in the way that your payoff matrix and understanding of human behavior and rational decision making would have predicted?
4. How often did the equilibrium outcomes according to your analysis of the payoff matrices correspond with the socially optimal outcome (i.e. the one where total payoffs for all players are maximized or the total losses minimized)?

Kiwifruit has been one of New Zealand’s niche exports for over the past forty years. New Zealand producers nearly 30% of the international traded kiwifruit. Kiwifruit is purchased by one large monopsony and then on sold to the international market by the large dominant buyer. During this period of time the value of kiwi exports has risen and fallen. Lately due to technological developments the fruit has undergone a process of product differentiation through cross-pollination of existing species and intensive marketing. Zespri a New Zealand company is attempting to extert dominance in the market to maximize profits.

Kiwifruit was originally known by its Chinese name, yáng táo (Sunny Peach) but was marketed as Kiwifruit in the 1950’s by the New Zealand export industry. This was to fit with the needs of the North American market. The name Kiwifruit was however never trade marked and thus other producers from Chile, Europe and China cashed in on the marketing and New Zealand producers lost their unique advantage and potential monopoly advantage.

In 1996 the New Zealand Kiwifruit industry undertook a new marketing venture to rebrand the humble kiwifruit as Zespri, a term that captured the zesty nature and vitality of the furry fruit. Overtime the New Zealand product again became noticeable in supermarkets in Europe and Asia and thus differentiated from the competition through branding. In 1987 the first yellow kiwifruit was developed by New Zealand horticulturists and last week the first red hulled fruit was developed for the export market. The NZ Herald reports here that

A variety of red-centred kiwifruit, called Hongyang, already exists but it doesn’t travel or store well so researchers are working on developing a more commercially useful version that can feed the huge export market.

The new red fruit is slightly smaller than the traditional green kiwifruit and has a sweet taste that resembles a tamarillo. Around the core is a deep red colour, which changes to yellow- green nearer the green skin.

Zespri has the largest kiwifruit species breeding programme in the world, keeping up to 50,000 seedlings in trial.
“We are trying to deliver the next generation of kiwifruit for the market to grow and increase the brand around the world,” said Rosstan Mazey, green produce category manager for Zespri.”

Globally the market for kiwi exporters potentially fits the assumptions of several market structures. The international market appears to fit the characteristics of an oligopoly. The barriers to produce and knowledge to export kiwifruit are significant. Nations or export focused companies such as Zespri are attempting to differentiate their products using new cross-pollination techniques to thus develop different varieties and to clearly distinguish their products from other exporters. The qualities of each variety may be very similar but customers will be willing to pay a little more for the uniqueness of the product. The costs of production for the different species of kiwifruit will likely be very similar in the long run thus firms can expect significantly higher profits.

These are some characteristics of market structures which can help us understand the Kiwifruit market.

Numbers: Although there are many producers in the international market for Kiwifruit it appears that a few firms or countries have a high concentration of the total global market share, Italy, New Zealand and Chile. The theory also suggests that each firm in an oligopolistic structure is interdependent on each other. You could argue that instead kiwifruit producers are independent and there is a high degree of competition and not collusion.

Ease of entry: There does exist some barriers to entry in the market due the high costs of setting up a fruit growing industry and then developing the channels to successfully export the product. But these barriers are also discouraging firms from exiting the industry. Farmers and the industry have large sunk costs, which would be hard to recover if they were forced to enter the market. A kiwifruit vine is a clear example of a sunk cost and is research and development. We could therefore assume that the industry is oligopolistic.

Product: Each firm or country in the Kiwifruit industry attempts to produce a branded product. There are becoming distinct differences in the products on offer as illustrated by the development of new species of yellow and red centered kiwifruit in New Zealand. Many economists believe that the main form of competition in oligopoly is non-price competition, and advertising in particular, to highlight the differences in the products. These differences such as country of origin increase the perceived value of the product.

This analysis perhaps explains how technological developments in cross-pollination are leading to a change in the global market structure for Kiwifruit as firms are able to produce significantly different products leading to technological barriers to entry and less contestability. Thus shifting the description of the market from monopolistic competition, which it may be been in the 1960’s to towards a perhaps oligopoly structure without the collusion, but with high barriers to entry and with greater competition.

For more reading on contestable markets, oligopolies and monopolistic competition the UK site here  S-Cool – Economics is a great start.

Discussion Questions:

1. Find examples from your local area of oligopolies, monopolistic and contestable markets?
2. What do the MR / AR curves look like for an oligopoly and monopolistic structure?
3. Compare and contrast the difference between an oligopoly and monopolistic competition?
4. How is a monopoly different from a monospony?
5. Find other examples of how technological change is altering a market structure. Does Apple have monopoly power in the portable music industry?

Teaching the Prisoners’ Dilemma Will Never Be the Same Again « Cheap Talk

Rarely does such a perfect illustration of the Prisoner’s Dilemma come along for Econ teachers to use in their classroom:

The payoffs are clear:

Each player has a weakly dominant strategy, which is to choose to steal. By choosing to steal, the player has a chance at maximizing his own payoff, but will do no worse than he would if his opponent also chooses to steal and at least will have the satisfaction of thwarting his opponent’s attempt to steal the money.

There are three Nash equilibria in the game, which are outcomes at which a player can not do better on his or her own by changing his or her strategy. The outcome Steve was hoping for by chosing “split” (50/50) was not a Nash equilibrium because Sarah knows she can do better if she chooses steal when Steve chooses split. Steve doomed himself by choosing split because he should know that Sarah’s dominant strategy is to choose steal. However, Sarah would also have doomed herself by choosing split because she should assume that Steve would also chose steal since steal is a dominant strategy for him too.

John Nash, who pioneered the field of Game Theory, assumed that humans were coldly rational, self-interested, deceptive creatures that would not hesitate to stab one another in the back to get what was best for themselves. His theory of human behavior is only partially proven correct in this game, in which Steve is shown to be the sucker and Sarah the coldly rational self-interested player. The best chance for Steve to go home with any money would have been for him to use the one minute of discussion time to convince Sarah that he would choose SPLIT, yet be willing to go home with something LESS THAN $50,000 and accept that Sarah was going to choose STEAL. He could have threatened to chose steal if she did not agree to share her winnings with him to some extent. Then again, any promise Sarah makes she could later break, thus further empowering the players to choose steal.

Discussion questions:

1. What in the world is going on here? Why did Sarah choose steal rather than collaborate with Steve and share the $100,000?
2. Was Steve totally wrong to choose split? What would you have done in his situation?
3. How do the choices faced by Steve and Sarah relate to the choices faced by firms in oligopolitic markets? Now that you’ve seen this video, can you explain why collusive agreements between oligopolists often fall apart? Why do cartels such as OPEC often fail to achieve the high price targets agreed upon in meetings of their leaders?

This week in AP Microeconomics students get to play online games, watch movies, and compete with their classmates in strategic competitions in which there are proud winners and sad losers. That’s right, we’re studying oligopoly!

What makes oligopolistic markets, which characterized by a few large firms, so different from the other market structures we study in Microeconomics? The answer is that unlike in more competitive markets in which firms are of much smaller size and one firm’s behavior has little or no effect on its competitors, an oligopolist that decides to lower its prices, change its output, expand into a new market, offer new services, or adverstise, will have powerful and consequential effects on the profitability of its competitors. For this reason, firms in oligopolistic markets are always considering the behavior of their competitors when making their own economic decisions.

To understand the behavior of non-collusive oligopolists, economists have employed a mathematical tool called Game Theory. The assumption is that large firms in competition will behave similarly to individual players in a game such as poker. Firms, which are the “players” will make “moves” (referring to economic decisions such as whether or not to advertise, whether to offer discounts or certain services, make particular changes to their products, charge a high or low price, or any other of a number of economic actions) based on the predicted behavior of their competitors.

If a large firm competing with other large firms understands the various “payoffs” (referring to the profits or losses that will result from a particular economic decision made by itself and its competitors) then it will be better able to make a rational, profit-maximizing (or loss minimizing) decision based on the likely actions of its competitors. The outcome of such a situation, or game, can be predicted using payoff matrixes. Below is an illustration of a game between two coffee shops competing in a small town.

As illustrated above, the tools of Game Theory, including the “payoff matrix”, can prove helpful in helping firms decide how to respond to particular actions by their competitors in oligopolistic markets. Of course, in the real world there are often more than two firms in competition in a particular market, and the decisions that they must make include more than simply to advertise or not. Much more complicated, multi-player games with several possible “moves” have also been developed and used to help make tough economic decisions a little easier in the world of competition.

While Game Theory can be useful in predicting firm behavior in oligopolistic markets, believe it or not that is not its most useful application developed. In fact, would you believe me if I told you that Game Theory may be precisely what saved the world from nuclear holocaust during the 20th Century? It’s true. The US government employed Game Theory to avert annihilation by nuclear attack from the Soviet Union during much of the 20th Century. This video tells the story!

Professor Preston McAfee on Price Discrimination

(you must have RealPlayer to view this video. Mac users can download it here)

CalTech Economics professor Preston McAfee is an expert on prices. His research spans three decades and examines the pricing behavior of firms in various market structures. In the lecture linked above the professor shares several examples of firms practicing price discrimination. I was surprised to see that many of the examples he discusses are ones that I have been using in my own lectures on price discrimination for the last few years.

McAfee presents a mathematical formula for monopoly pricing, which no AP or IB text that I’ve seen has included:

Monopoly Price = [PED/(1-PED)] x MC where PED is the price elasticity of demand of the customer and MC is the firm’s marginal cost of production.

The basic idea is that the more inelastic the customer’s demand, the higher price the monopolist should charge over its marginal cost. The implication, therefore, is that a monopolist prefers to charge higher prices to customer’s whose demand is inelastic and lower prices to customers who are “price sensitive” or whose demand is elastic. The charging of different prices to different consumers for the exact same product is what economists call price discrimination.

McAfee begins talking about price discrimination at minute 8:44 in the video. His examples include:

• Movie theaters: Charge different prices based on age. Seniors and youth pay less since they tend to be more price sensitive.
• Gas stations: Gas stations will charge different prices in different neighborhoods based on relative demand and location.
• Grocery stores: Offer coupons to price sensitive consumers (people whose demand is inelastic won’t bother to cut coupons, thus will pay more for the same products as price sensitive consumers who take the time to collect coupons).
• Quantity discounts: Grocery stores give discounts for bulk purchases by customers who are price sensitive (think “buy one gallon of milk, get a second gallon free”… the family of six is price sensitive and is likely to pay less per gallon than the dual income couple with no kids who would never buy two gallons of milk).
• Dell Computers: Dell price discriminates based on customer answers to questions during the online shopping process. Dell charges higher prices to large business and government agencies than to households and small businesses for the exact same product!
• Hotel room rates: Some hotels will charge less for customers who bother to ask about special room rates than to those who don’t even bother to ask.
• Telephone plans: Some customers who ask their provider for special rates will find it incredibly easy to get better calling rates than if they don’t bother to ask.
• Damaged goods discounts: When a company creates  and sells two products that are essentially identical except one has fewer features and costs significantly less to capture more price-sensitive consumers.
• Book publishers: Some paperbacks cost more to manufacture but sell to consumers for significantly less than hard covers. Price sensitive consumers will buy the paperback while those with inelastic demand will pay more for the hard cover.
• Airline ticket prices: Weekend stayover discounts for leisure travelers mean business people, whose demand for flights is highly inelastic, but who will rarely stay over a weekend, pay far more for a roundtrip ticket that departs and returns during the week.

McAfee also goes into a fascinating discussion of price dispersion which is essentially a theory of oligopoly pricing. All Econ teachers should watch this video and find examples of price discrimination and oligopoly pricing that they can incorporate into their own class.

If you’re up for a challenge, try deciphering some of the mathematics in McAfee’s free, downloadable intro to economics text, available here.

In  IB Economics, we are currently learning about how firms in imperfectly competitive markets differentiate their products in order to increase their market power and their price-making power.

In a market with a few large firms such as the laptop computer market, companies must do what they can to increase demand for their own products over those of their competitors. Apple Computer is an example of a company that has successfully differentiated its line of laptop computers in recent years, regularly improving the features of its line of MacBooks to attract consumers away from its competitors and into the world of Macs.

Last year Apple launched the MacBook Air, the lightest and thinnest laptop on the market, creating a huge buzz in the technology world and converting millions to Apple’s line of laptops. This year, Apple has launched yet another innovation in laptop computing, in the hope of once again increasing demand for its products, and making consumers think they cannot live without the sleek, shiny Apple computers. This year’s innovation? The “MacBook Wheel”… watch:

Apple Introduces Revolutionary New Laptop With No Keyboard

The goal of an imperfectly competitive firm like Apple is to increase its market power by increasing demand for its particular product through product differentiation, advertising, developing brand loyalty, and “hype”: all forms of non-price competition. If Apple were to simply charge a lower price than its competitors for its products, it would also succeed in increasing the amount of computers it sells to consumers, but may also end up accepting lower profits due to the lower prices it must sell for.

Through differentiation, which means making its products unique and attractive to consumers, Apple attempts to increase market demand for its computers, while simultaneously making demand less elastic. With higher, more inelastic demand, Apple gains price-making power over the laptop computer market, as can be seen in the graphs below, which show that after the successful launch of a new product like the MacBook wheel Apple is able to charge a higher price, produce a similar quantity, and earn greater economic profits.

In the video, one customer says that he’d buy “buy almost anything if it’s shiny and its made by Apple”. Such statements reflect that among loyal customers, demand for Apple’s products is highly inelastic. While the firm is certainly not a monopolist in the market for laptop computers, Apple has surely succeeded to increase its market power and thus its power over prices through product differentiation, brand loyalty, and the “hype” surrounding the launch of new products like the MacBook Wheel.

Discussion questions:

1. In the graphs above, the slopes of the demand curve increases after successful product differentiation by Apple. Why does this happen?
2. Assuming the market for laptop computers is monopolistically competitive, what will likely happen to Apples economic profits over time? What must Apple do if it wishes to maintain its profits in the long-run?
3. What are some real ways companies like Apple and its competitors have attempted to differentiate their products over the years? Would YOU buys a MacBook Wheel if it were real?

Pepsi Tests ‘Naturally Sourced’ Beverage – Advertising Age – News

Pepsi is just about to launch its first new beverage since 1992.  The drink, called “RAW” will present consumers with a healthier alternative to the artificially flavored soft drinks that dominate the oligopolistic market.

Apple extract, sparkling water, grapes, coffee leaf, raw cane sugar. The list of ingredients sounds like it belongs to a health drink, but those are the components of Pepsi’s newest variant.

Pepsi Raw, being launched in U.K. test markets, is meant to be a more healthful alternative to the traditional cola. A type of Pepsi made from only “naturally sourced” ingredients, it taps into demand for premium, less-processed products.

Sounds great, right? But would you be willing to pay more for a “natural” Pepsi than for the good old fashioned artificially flavored Pepsi and Cokes you grew up with? Pepsi is betting the drink will appeal to young hipsters, and is launching it primarily at clubs and bars in six UK cities to test out the market.

So when can Americans expect to  enjoy the natural goodness of Pepsi RAW? Unfortunately, Pepsi seems to think Americans are a bunch of fat tightwads:

 ”It makes sense to launch first in the U.K. because health concerns are a bigger issue there,” Ms. Dornblaser said, adding, “It might not fly as well in the U.S. because of the price.”

Oh, and if you’re too young to remember what Pepsi’s last attempted new product launch was, allow me to jog your memory:

Hey, I LOVED Crystal Pepsi! So, would you be willing to pay more for a healthier Pepsi?

Nokia Won’t Play iPhone’s Tune

As we know, oligopolistic markets are characterized by a few large firms which act interdependently based on the actions of one another. Examples of such interdependence may include pricing and output behavior, advertising behavior, sales and promotions, non-price competition, services offered to consumers, and so on. The “game” of oligopoly is played with one very important goal in mind: maintaining market share in the face of competition from rivals.

In a previous post I discussed some of the strategies Apple has used to break into the oligopolistic market for cellular phones, which it recently did by introducing the thus far wildly successful iPhone. A chart in that post showed that as of earlier this year, the dominant firm in the mobile phone market was Nokia, with a market share of 35.1%. Apple was not even a competitor in this market until July of this year, which saw the successful launch of the iPhone, causing some of the incumbent mobile phone makers to pay close attention to the newcomer’s behavior.

Nokia executives, however, appear to be in denial of the potential threat posed by the iPhone to its dominance in the cell phone industry:

Nokia managers would never admit to being influenced by the Apple iPhone, which mobile phone industry insiders regard as clever but technologically unimpressive. “We don’t determine strategy based on the competition,” insists Anssi Vanjoki, Nokia executive vice-president and general manager for multimedia. “The consumer is our compass.”

Continue Reading »

China Mobile negotiating with Apple to carry iPhone

Try try as he might, Steve Jobs and Apple can barely launch their hottest new product, the iPhone, before the Chinese have copied it and put a knockoff on the market as quickly as you can say “can you hear me now?” But what is Apple doing making a cell phone anyway? Isn’t the mobile phone market pretty much dominated by a few big name companies already? How will apple ever survive in a market with such well established firms as Nokia, Samsung, and Motorola?

The answer is through product differentiation. The iPhone is truly an innovative little gadget. More than an MP3 player, more than a cell phone, the iPhone has features that differentiate it from most products available from the established firms in the mobile phone market. Like any firm, Apple advertises its iPod through commercials and other media in order to inform consumers about what makes its product special. What message does the following advertisement send about the iPhone?

The table below shows the market shares of the larges mobile phone makers as of late last year (before the release of the iPhone). A simple calculation finds that the four firm concentration ratio in the mobile market was 75.6%, clearly putting the market in the realm of an oligopoly (a market in which the four firm concentration ration is 40%).

With 75% of the market being controlled by Nokia, Motorola, Samsung and Sony Ericsson, the question arises whether Apple will be able to overcome the barriers to entry in the mobile market and establish itself as one of the big boys. Apple’s strategy for profits and market penetration certainly leverages the power of product differentiation and non-price competition, both firm behaviors common among firms in oligopolistic markets.

To make matters worse for Apple, only months after the iPhones release, and in the midst of negotiations between Apple and China Mobile to officially launch the product in China, a cheap, 4 GB knock-off of the fancy device comes along to entice Chinese consumers away from the 5,000 RMB (nearly $700) real deal. Check this thing out… would you be able to tell the difference?

Discussion Questions:

1. What barriers to entry exist in the market for mobile phones?
2. Why do you think so few firms produce mobile phones?
3. Do you think Apple will be able to successfully penetrate the mobile market?
4. What threat do cheaper “knock-offs” of the Apple iPhone pose to Apples attempts to compete in China’s mobile market?

BBC NEWS | Technology | Nintendo warns of Wii shortages

Looks like Brits dreaming of the Wii from Nintendo may have to wait a while longer this holiday season, as British retailers are finding it nearly impossible to fill customers’ orders. It turns out there is quite a shortage for the hot new gaming system from Nintendo!

“Although we’re receiving regular deliveries from Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft and getting the products onto the shelves as fast as we can – it’s possible that demand will outstrip supplies on some products, for example the Nintendo Wii, which has been hugely popular all through the year,” read a statement from high street gaming specialist Game…

“The Nintendo Wii consoles have proved extremely popular with our customers and have been flying off the shelves whenever we get new stock in,” said a spokeswoman.

It seems like the shortage of Wii’s in the UK should send a message to Nintendo and its retailers: RAISE THE PRICE!! One way retailers have tried to do this is by bundling the consoles with up to three or four games, meaning to take home a console shoppers would have to fork over 300 GBP. This seems like a great strategy for retailers faced with strong demand from customers, given that they are probably not allowed to charge above Nintendos suggested retail price for the console itself. Continue Reading »

by Annie Sung and Kristie Chung

Which do you prefer, the Wii? the XBox 360? the PS3? How about other video game consoles? Can you even think of any other video games consoles? Hmm… let’s see… how about the Sega? Wait, no, haven’t seen any of those in a while… what about the Atari? Oh, shoot, nope! Oh yeah, don’t forget the Caleco Vision (for the record, Mr. Welker’s earliest video game memory was of playing Smurfs on a Caleco Vision).

The fact is, today, the market for video game consoles has shrunk to three dominant firms: Nintendo, Microsoft and Sony. This podcast will investigate the video game console market, examine its characteristics, including the elasticity of demand for the different consoles, and conclude whether it exhibits the features of an oligopoly.

Wetpaint, the free online wiki service, has stepped up its use of non-price competition in an attempt to increase its market share in the wiki market. In addition to releasing several Mac vs. PC parody videos meant to showcase the user-friendly, customizability of Wetpaint’s wikis vs. its rivals, the company also announced this morning that it would be offering ad-free wikis to educators!

As a user of Wetpaint since early this year, the distracting presence of advertisements bothered me; the decision to provide educators with ad-free wikis is huge, and makes Wetpaint even more attractive as a platform for hosting online learning communities for teachers of all grade levels.

You may be thinking, “Huh? There’s a market for wikis?” Well sure there is. Just because something’s free for us consumers does not mean it’s not a profit oriented business. Wetpaint and its rivals compete for consumers in an oligopolistic market in which competition is not based on price (since its products are essentially free), rather on product differentiation based on features and communicated through advertising and public relations.

Continue Reading »

 

Managing Globalization » Business Blog » International Herald Tribune » Blog Archive » China takes to the skies

and the full article: China hopes a homegrown regional jetliner can challenge Airbus and Boeing – International Herald Tribune

Here’s another great example of a market that is set to experience a serious change in the near future. The oligopolistic market for “regional jets”, long dominated by two firms, is set to see the entrance of a new manufacturer. From whence doth the new bird fly? From the far East, no less…

“After a couple of false starts, the Chinese commercial aircraft industry may finally be getting off the ground. Starting next year, the prosaically named China Aviation Industry Corporation 1 plans to offer a regional jet that will compete directly with the two dominant forces in the market, Canada’s Bombardier and Brazil’s Embraer.”

Without even reading the rest of this article, you should be able to picture what will happen in the market for regional jets once the Chinese planes start rolling off the assembly lines. This article will also prove relevant when we begin studying market structures. What are the effects of a more competitive market for regional jets?

“Consumers in the rest of the world could benefit, though. Moving from two companies to three in a growing market could bring aircraft prices down, and eventually airfares as well – especially if the Chinese company’s costs are lower.”

But what of the widespread concerns that have emerges of late about the quality of products coming out of China?

“…if China has to combat worries about product quality in areas like foods and toys, just imagine the hurdles it will face with a passenger plane. Those benefits could still be many years away, depending on how people perceive the new product. Would you fly on a Chinese-made airplane?”

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While students and teachers across America settle into their summer routine and look forward to three more weeks of summer vacation, the first week of August marks an unseen exodus of thousands of international students and teachers in countries on every continent. For some reason, international schools all seem to start about two weeks earlier than the post-Labor day start date enjoyed by most public school in the US. Here at Shanghai American school, teachers arrive in droves around the 7th and 8th of August, just in time for our first work day on the 9th.

My wife and I returned to 95 degree heat from the pleasant 70’s of Seattle last night to begin preparing for our second year at Shanghai American School. In a week SAS will welcome around 2900 students, making it one of the largest international schools in the world. As part of our orientation this morning, our director, Dr. Dennis Larkin, shared a bit of SAS’s 95 year history with the faculty, enlightening many of us to the school’s storied past stretching back to the concession era of Shanghai’s “golden age” when thousands of Westerners made their settlements in the city’s center. 100 years ago Shanghai underwent a renaissance unseen in China’s thousands of years of history. European influence brought the city into the 20th century architecturally, culturally, economically, and perhaps more notoriously in the realm of criminal activity as gangsters took over the city through much of the 20’s and 30’s.

With the large Western presence came a demand for Western schools, thus in 1912 Shanghai American School welcomed its first class of 12 students. By the 20’s enrollment rose to 600, and by the 30’s it approached 1,000. In 1937 China was invaded by Japan, and foreign firms and embassies began nervously moving their people out of Shanghai. By 1939 Shanghai had fallen to the Japanese and the school grounds were occupied by Japanese troops. But with the surrender of the Japanese in 1945, the school was back in operation, albeit for only a short time as a civil war between the Chinese Communist Party and the US backed Nationalists brought violence to the streets of Shanghai once more. By 1950 Beijing had fallen to Mao and the Communists, and SAS was shut down “for good”. Its doors would remained closed for 30 years until 1980, when Mao had died and Deng Xiaoping had ushered in the era of “Reform and Opening”, a euphemism for westernization. Once again SAS opened for business.

In the 27 years since the school’s rebirth, the student body has grown from the seven children of American diplomats to 2,900 students from over 50 countries. In the last five years alone the student body has nearly doubled in size, as the school has added a second campus and countless new buildings to serve the growing population of foreigners in Shanghai. Over the same 27 years, around ten other international schools have opened in Shanghai, some with two or three campuses spread across the vast city, several serving over 1000 students also from scores of foreign countries. What impact has the opening and expansion of SAS and other international schools had on tuition paid by foreign students in Shanghai? You may think that with so many schools competing to attract students, each school would have to lower its fees in order to attract students away from its competitors. Well, you’d be wrong. SAS increased its tuition fees by 10% this year, bringing a year’s tuition to around $22,000. Its competitors charge something in the same ballpark, meaning a year of schooling at any of Shanghai’s international schools will cost a family more than a year’s tuition at most state universities in the US.

Discussion Questions:

So, what does all this history and data have to do with economics? Here’s a simple supply and demand question for you. In 1980, international schools in Shanghai had room for, let’s say 20 students total. I am not sure, but I’d guess tuition in 1980 probably ran around $2,000. Today, there are somewhere around 10 international schools with room for probably around 10,000 students, and the average tuition is somewhere in the realm of $20,000.

1. How would an economist explain the 1,000% increase in tuition over the last 27 years, given the fact that today international schools in Shanghai have the capacity to serve 500 times as many students as they could in 1980?
2. Could you draw a supply and demand diagram illustrating the changes that have occurred since 1980 in the market for international education in Shanghai?
3. Let’s be honest, $22,000 is a lot of money for a year of school. What would have to happen in the market for international education in Shanghai for the tuition fees to go down? Identify two scenarios that would result in a tuition decrease. Illustrate these scenarios on your diagram.

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For six of our 16 days, my wife Liz and our friend Leah rented a jeep and circumnavigated the island. Our first stop was for two days of scuba diving in the northeast region of Ahmed. As we drove along the seven or so beaches near Ahmed, we observed there were around ten dive operators offering packages for the local dive spots (including one of Asia’s most famous dives, the WWII-era USS Liberty wreck). Based on our Lonely Planet recommendation, we settled on Eco-Dive, where we paid $60 a day for two dives and all our gear rental. We felt good about this rate and agreed that $60 was a fair and competitive price for a day of diving.

Our next stop, Pemuteran, a remote and relatively undeveloped area on the northwest coast just across the straits from Java, is also known for its great diving. Our first morning in Pemuteran, my wife and I strolled along the beach and found that there were only three dive operators to choose from! And guess what, they all charged between $95-$105 for a two-dive day with gear included! That’s around 60% more than the operators in Ahmed charged! In the end, we decided to do only one day of diving in Pemuteran, and elected to spend our second day there reading by the pool.

Discussion Questions:

1. What was the difference between the scuba diving markets in Ahmed and Pemuteran? Which market was more competitive?
2. What allowed operators in Pemuteran to charge 60% more than the operators in Ahmed? What kind of market structure best describes the diving market in Pemuteran?
3. What do you think is keeping one of the three dive operators in Pemuteran from lowering their price to, say, $60 for a day of diving? How would the other two operators respond? Would this be good or bad for the dive operators of Pemuteran? Would it be good or bad for scuba divers?
4. Assuming that the cost of opening a dive operation was relatively low, and there were no government or other barriers to doing so in Pemuteran, what do you suspect will happen in the Scuba diving market as the tourism industry continues to develop in the remote town of Pemuteran? Explain.

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IF you’ve visited this blog in the last two weeks, you’ve probably seen the picture below of a beautiful sunset, a distant island and a wispy palm. Turns out I stayed two nights on the beach that picture was taken from, Ahmed in Bali’s remote northwest corner! What a beautiful island Bali is! Unlike many touristy places in Southeast Asia such as Phuket and Samui in Thailand, Bali is an island paradise that has managed to develop a thriving tourist industry while simultaneously maintaining its distinct Hindu culture and traditions that awe visitors and help them understand why it’s called the “island of the gods”. Not only do most Balinese outside the one or two major cities still live in the traditional style houses, but they actively practice their unique form of Hinduism (imported from India via Java in the 11th century), maintain the traditional forms of dance and religious ritual, and sustain themselves by practicing any number of artistic trades rooted in the island’s rich and colorful history. Indeed, in most villages we passed through, it was hard to tell which buildings were temples and which were houses. As much of Indonesia and the rest of Asia have rushed head-on into the age of globalization (often meaning westernization), Bali has thankfully held on to and even fostered one very precious and all too rare commodity: its own history.

Certainly after a year in Shanghai, where the closest thing to religion among urban Chinese is the pursuit of wealth, a couple of weeks in the rich spiritual heart of an ancient Hindu island culture was just what I needed to remind myself what was important in life. But alas, once an economist always an economist, and even with a thousand years of rich cultural heritage to turn my attention from school and economics, I could not help but notice the intricacies of Bali’s economy and how tourism and globalization have affected this remote island culture. My next few posts will cover casual observations made during my 16 day trip to Bali about its local economy and how it has been shaped by the global economy and tourism.

Here’s a follow-up to the previous post about stupid Americans acting stupid. Looks like the stupidity is not limited to the idiotic idea of boycotting gas for a day, rather it is alive and well among America’s leaders. Here’s the Democrats’ solution to the high gas prices faced by Americans today:

Join the Campaign to Change America / John Edwards ‘08 Blog

“The ENERGY PRICE GOUGING PREVENTION ACT will provide immediate relief to consumers by giving the Federal Trade Commission the AUTHORITY to investigate prices–focusing on the causes, the burdens they put on American families and businesses, and solutions.”

And here’s an insightful and entertaining critique of the Democrat’s proposed bill by economist Tim Haab:

Environmental Economics: All politicians are idiots and other obvious thoughts on high gas prices

“There are two possibile explanations for the Democrats proposal of the STUPID bill. 1) They think the public is too stupid realize they are trying to “do something” by proposing a STUPID bill, or 2) They are idiots. Since Env-Econ readers obviously represent a cross-section of the public, and since Env-Econ readers are smart enough to know that this bill is STUPID, I have to conclude that 1) is logically impossible and therefore, 2) must be true. So we’ve now proven that Democrats are idiots. We’re halfway there.”

The stupidity of this proposed bill lies in the fact that Democrats seem to champion environmental protection, reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, and a solution to the global warming problem, while simultaneously fighting for regulations that REDUCE the price of greenhouse gas emitting fuel, the repeal of gas taxes, the expansion of oil refineries’ capacity, and other measures that will assure the cheapest gas possible for American drivers. The two goals are incompatible, as the solution to the greenhouse gas problem requires HIGHER gas prices, not lower gas prices.

What policy makers don’t realize is that “high gas prices are NOT an economic or political problem.” Markets allocate resources efficiently when markets are allowed to work. Higher gas prices reflect the basic economic law of scarcity, supply and demand. With developing countries like China demanding a greater proportion of world reserves than ever before, American drivers preparing for their summer road trips and a war raging in the middle east, higher prices at the pump should come as no surprise. Intervention in the gas market will result in greater inefficiency, as prices kept artificially low by government interfere with the market mechanism, increasing the quantity of gas demanded, and further exasperating the depletion of this scarce resource (not to mention contributing to the nation’s greenhouse gas emissions). The shortsightedness of legislators may only postpone the inevitable price rises of this resource for tomorrow’s consumers, while work in the complete opposite direction as they desire on the global warming front.

Ultimately, higher gas prices are necessary and desirable if we are to transition to more environmentally friendly fuel sources. As petrol reaches $4.00 per gallon, consumers will think more seriously about buying more fuel-efficient automobiles, using public transportation, choosing to cycle to work and taking other such steps towards reducing their carbon footprints. This, after all, is the only way Democrats will ever achieve their other supposed goal of avoiding the catastrophe of global warming and achieving greater energy independence; and this can only happen if gas prices continue to rise.

So what about “price gouging”? Concentration of market power among a handful of firms in the oligopolistic oil market may indeed result in some degree of collusion and setting of prices above equilibrium. This is inefficient, yes, but it occurs in a market in which, unregulated, equilibrium output and price would also be inefficient due to the existence of negative externalities. In other words, even were oil companies competing directly, the price would be too low and output too high since the price of gas does not include the full social cost of gas consumption. In a way, the inefficiency arising from excess market power corrects the inefficiency arising from the existence of externalities. The catch is this: consumers end up lining the pockets of oil companies rather than filling their own national tax coffers, since the higher price is a result of collusion rather than taxation.

What policy makers should be discussing is the imposition of new gas taxes, which, rather than only increasing the price consumers would pay, would reduce the ability of oil firms to price gouge, taking a chunk out of their “record profits” and turning it into tax revenues. These revenues could then be invested into research of new fuel technologies, the subsidizing of which would increase their supplies, making them more competitive as a substitute for petrol and thus more attractive to consumers. This helps politicians achieve their goal of energy independence and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Lower gas prices NOW will only postpone this important transition.

Here’s another clear presentation of why politicians should not meddle with oil prices: Knowledge Problem: Price Gouging – Politicians vs. Economists

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