Clinton thinks suspending the gas tax for the summer is good for Americans. She says that any revenue lost can be made up for by taxing the profits of oil companies.

Obama thinks it will cause more harm than good to the economy. He says the $9 billion of government revenue foregone could have done more good for the economy through job creation and road maintenance than the $25 each American driver will save with a suspension of the gas tax.

They’re both using their positions on the gas tax to garner more support among Democratic voters in Indiana and North Carolina, where next week’s key primaries will be held.

Greg Mankiw, Harvard economist, has this to say about Hillary’s plan:

I don’t know any prominent economist who favors this McCain-Clinton proposal. More common is the reaction of a friend of mine (a veteran of the Clinton administration) who calls the idea “ludicrous.”

Sometimes a candidate’s position on one particular issue, even a relatively minor one like a federal gas tax that most Americans probably didn’t even know they were paying when they filled up their tanks, draws clear lines around a candidate’s values.

Clinton’s ‘Trouble’ ad

Obama Takes On Clinton and McCain on Gas Tax Holiday

It should be noted that while Obama is probably right that a gas tax suspension will only save drivers a pittance, his economics is slightly flawed. Here’s Tim Haab of Environmental Economics blog responding to Obama’s claim that a gas tax holiday could actually increase demand for gas thus raise gas prices:

Wrong, wrong, wrong: A lower gas price causes quantity demanded to increase as consumers move down the demand curve. The only things that cause gas demand to change are changes in income, prices of substitutes and complements, tastes and preferences and expectations… I demand a retraction.

Who are these “some economists” that Obama is talking about? Did they get their degrees from an SEC school or something? Name names so that we can have an econoblogosphere beatdown! Out these blasphemers!

Note: I think Obama got the $25 to $30 number correct.

Mr. Haab is technically correct when it comes to basic economic theory. Repealing the gas tax should shift supply out, not demand, as taxes are a determinant of supply. Rather than demand changing, quantity demanded by drivers will increase, in response to the increased supply and lower prices.

What I do think could happen, however, is that expectations of future price increases might incentivize drivers to increase their demand for gas over the summer. This Mr. Haab seems to oversee. When August roles around and drivers know that come Labor day the gas tax will kick in again, they may chose to take a family road trip that they otherwise would have postponed, shifting overall demand for gas out, driving prices up.

In the case of a temporary suspension of an excise tax on any good, there is always the expectation that the price will increase again in the future. This could lead to hoarding or stockpiling of the good, increasing overall demand and driving the price up before the tax has even returned.

As Clinton Seeks Gas Tax Break for Summer, Obama Says No - New York Times

Times are tough for American consumers. Rising food and fuel prices have increased the proportion of household incomes that must be allocated towards these two necessities, both for which demand is highly inelastic, meaning that as their prices rise, the quantity demanded by consumers remains relatively high.

In response to the pinching of Americans’ pocketbooks, two presidential candidates are advocating action at the federal level.

Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton lined up with Senator John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee for president, in endorsing a plan to suspend the federal excise tax on gasoline, 18.4 cents a gallon, for the summer travel season.

Sounds like a good idea, right? If Americans are finding it burdensome to pay more at the pump, and the government can do something to relieve that burden, why shouldn’t they do it?

Let’s do a little calculation here: At 18.4 cents per gallon, how much per fill-up will Americans save?

I drive a ‘94 Toyota pick-up, has a 15 gallon tank and gets notoriously poor mileage. I’ll save $2.76 per tank of gas I buy. I usually fill up my truck about once a week during the summer, meaning I’ll save that much each week. McCain wants to suspend the gas tax from Memorial Day until Labor Day, or for a total of about 12 weeks. If Clinton and McCain get their way, I could very well save as much as $33.12 this year! ASTOUNDING!! What a deal for Americans!

Clearly, repealing the gas tax will have only a minor impact on disposable incomes in America. Obama seems to understand this better than the other candidates:

Senator Barack Obama, Mrs. Clinton’s Democratic rival, spoke out firmly against the proposal, saying it would save consumers little and do nothing to curtail oil consumption and imports…

Mr. Obama derided the McCain-Clinton idea of a federal tax holiday as a “short-term, quick-fix” proposal that would do more harm than good, and said the money, which is earmarked for the federal highway trust fund, is badly needed to maintain the nation’s roads and bridges.

The decision to suspend or not suspend federal gas taxes is essentially a cost-benefit decision. The benefit? Well, apparently around $30 per driver, or about half a tank of gas, compliments of the US government. The cost? Read on…

The highway trust fund that the gas tax finances provides money to states and local governments to pay for road and bridge construction, repair and maintenance. Mr. McCain and Mrs. Clinton propose to suspend the tax from Memorial Day to Labor Day, the peak driving season, which would lower tax receipts by roughly $9 billion and potentially cost 300,000 highway construction jobs, according to state highway officials.

There you have it; $9 billion dollars and hundreds of thousands of jobs that won’t be created in order to put half a tank of gas in each American’s car, which if you think about it, will only lead to Americans driving more this summer. Repealing the gas tax may actually induce Americans who weren’t planning road trips to go ahead and take one, increasing the overall demand for gas and driving the price up to the level it would have been with the tax.

And what about the much needed government revenue the tax creates? Hillary has another plan for recouping that loss:

Mrs. Clinton would replace that money with the new tax on oil company profits, an idea that has been kicking around Congress for several years but has not been enacted into law. Mr. McCain would divert tax revenue from other sources to make the highway trust fund whole.

Clearly, Mrs. Clinton needs a refresher course in basic microeconomics. If she had paid attention in AP Economics (did she even take AP Econ?), Clinton would know that a tax on producers of a highly inelastic good such as oil can be passed almost entirely onto the consumers. In this case, the oil companies, when faced with additional federal taxes on profits, will respond by restricting output, which reduces overall supply in oil market, raising the price of the main input for gasoline. Higher input costs for gasoline refineries will reduce overall supply of gasoline, increasing the price paid by consumers at the pump, negating any price-reduction induced by the suspension of the gas tax.

Ultimately, all taxes are borne by the consumers of an inelastic product: gasoline in this case. Whether the tax is levied on drivers directly, or the oil companies “upstream” in the production process, the outcome is the same: supply is restricted and price is higher.

The suspension of a gas tax that only costs Americans $30 over 3 months appears to impose a much greater cost to society than benefit. At least Obama seems to understand the basic economic reasoning behind this fact.

Obama on State Gas Tax Suspension

Kite Powered Ship Sets Sail for Greener Futhre - Guardian.co.uk

A German engineer has given an old technology new life to help make trans-oceanic shipping greener and least costly.

A cargo ship pulled by a giant, parachute-shaped kite will leave Germany on Tuesday on a voyage that could herald a new “green” age of commercial sailing on the high seas.

The owners of the MS Beluga, a 462ft cargo vessel, will try to prove that modern steel ships can harness wind power and reduce their reliance on diesel engines.

During the journey from Bremen to Venezuela, the crew will deploy a SkySail, a 160 square metre kite which will fly more than 600ft above the vessel, where winds are stronger and more consistent than at sea level.

Its inventor, Stephan Wrage, a 34-year-old German engineer, claims the kite will significantly reduce carbon emissions, cutting diesel consumption by up to 20 per cent and saving £800 a day in fuel costs. He believes an even bigger kite, up to 5,000 square metres, could result in fuel savings of up to 35 per cent.

Here’s a thought… reduced fuel costs to trans-oceanic shipping companies should shift the supply of such services out, as the marginal cost of shipping falls. Greater supply will mean lower prices to customers demanding such services, moving downward along the demand curve, increasing the equilibrium quantity of trans-oceanic cargo journeys.

Question: Assume all cargo ships in the world eventually incorporate the sail technology, increasing the supply and reducing the price of shipping by an average of 20% and reducing the emission of greenhouse gases of vessels by an average of 20%. What would have to be true about the price elasticity of demand for trans-oceanic shipping in order for a 20% reduction in price to result in an overall reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by cargo ships? Depending on the answer to this question, this “green” technology could actually result in greater emissions of greenhouse gases by cargo ships.

Explain…

Oil worker shortage could lead to supply squeeze - Nov. 2, 2007

Lately I’ve blogged about the impact of higher oil prices on the petrol market in China (here and here). As the main input in petroleum products such as gasoline and diesel, the price of oil affects the costs of fuel producers, such as China’’s SinoPec and PetroChina, the two large state-owned petroleum companies, as well as the scores of smaller competitors in that provide fuel to China’s thirsty economic machine.

As the price of oil has approached $100 per barrel, fuel manufacturers have had to cut back output as their costs have soared, putting upward pressure on the market price of fuel here in China. But what determines the price of a barrel of oil? Is the increase in the price of oil due to an outward shift of demand or an inward shift of supply? Actually, it’s probably both. This article helps answer part of our question, and it does so by discussing one of the determinants of supply of oil, resource costs. Continue Reading »

FT.com / Asia-Pacific / China - China freezes government-set prices

Here’s a great article for both AP and IB students to pay attention to. The Chinese government is responding to rising prices at home by resorting to some good old fashioned “iron fist” measures, namely price controls on a wide range of products. For the rest of this year, prices on certain goods and services will not be permitted to rise, OR ELSE! (what? we don’t want to know!)

China has begun to enforce a freeze on all government-controlled prices in a sign of the central government’s alarm about rising popular anger over inflation, now at the highest rate in over a decade.The order freezes a vast array of prices still under the control of governments in China, ranging from oil, electricity and water, to the cost of parking and park entrance fees.

I find the following statement interesting:

“Any unauthorised price rises are strictly forbidden…and in principle, there will be no new price-raising measures this year,” the ministries’ announcement said. (italics added)

How strange is it that the government’s announcement pointed out that the freeze on prices is only in principle? Could this be the government’s attempt to placate a public that’s grown angry at their weakening purchasing power? Does this mean that if prices actually do go up, the government can just say, “Hey, at least we tried!” Looks like the old communist mentality has softened a bit in the era of market reforms!

So what’s the source of all these rising prices? Well, food plays a big role, thanks to a couple of factors:

The sharp spike in inflation is largely due to higher food prices, because of a shortage of pigs after a disease killed millions late last year and earlier in 2007, and the rising cost of feed, a global
phenomenon.

The China of today is very different from that of 20 or 30 years ago, when the government played a much larger role in the economy. Unleashing the beast of the free market in the early 80’s may have meant the government would have to loosen its grip in situations such as today’s inflation, and let the free market adjust on its own.

Economists said the price freeze is the kind of administrative measure redolent of China’s former planned economy, but it may be less effective in China today.

“They will not be able to control the price of everything,” said Chen Xingdong, of BNP Parisbas in Beijing.

Perhaps that’s for the better. Why might the government’s price controls actually make the matter worse for the average Chinese? If the government were to take a “laissez faire” approach to the problems faced by China, how might the free market resolve them on its own? Any ideas? Don’t worry, AP student, you don’t need to explain this yet, but I promise you by the end of the year you’ll be able to!

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 Podcast: China's Inflation and Consumer Spending: Download

 

Managing Globalization » Business Blog » International Herald Tribune » Blog Archive » China takes to the skies

and the full article: China hopes a homegrown regional jetliner can challenge Airbus and Boeing - International Herald Tribune

Here’s another great example of a market that is set to experience a serious change in the near future. The oligopolistic market for “regional jets”, long dominated by two firms, is set to see the entrance of a new manufacturer. From whence doth the new bird fly? From the far East, no less…

“After a couple of false starts, the Chinese commercial aircraft industry may finally be getting off the ground. Starting next year, the prosaically named China Aviation Industry Corporation 1 plans to offer a regional jet that will compete directly with the two dominant forces in the market, Canada’s Bombardier and Brazil’s Embraer.”

Without even reading the rest of this article, you should be able to picture what will happen in the market for regional jets once the Chinese planes start rolling off the assembly lines. This article will also prove relevant when we begin studying market structures. What are the effects of a more competitive market for regional jets?

“Consumers in the rest of the world could benefit, though. Moving from two companies to three in a growing market could bring aircraft prices down, and eventually airfares as well - especially if the Chinese company’s costs are lower.”

But what of the widespread concerns that have emerges of late about the quality of products coming out of China?

“…if China has to combat worries about product quality in areas like foods and toys, just imagine the hurdles it will face with a passenger plane. Those benefits could still be many years away, depending on how people perceive the new product. Would you fly on a Chinese-made airplane?”

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Mali’s Farmers Discover a Weed’s Potential Power - Sept 6, New York Times

Can it be possible that a new use for an old weed could change the economic health of a nation and at the same time defy the law of opportunity costs? In Mali, farmers are choosing to plant more of weed called jatropha becuase it can now be turned into biofuel. It is a unique plant in that it needs marginal soil and requires little fertilizer. In class we have talked about how discovering a new resource can cause economic growth, how this can shift the PPC curve. But, can a country actually get the benefits of using this new resource with out any opportunity cost? Is what is happening in Mali an example of economic development or economic growth in the first place? Is this a supply or a demand issue?

But now that a plant called jatropha is being hailed by scientists and policy makers as a potentially ideal source of biofuel, a plant that can grow in marginal soil or beside food crops, that does not require a lot of fertilizer and yields many times as much biofuel per acre planted as corn and many other potential biofuels. By planting a row of jatropha for every seven rows of regular crops, Mr. Banani could double his income on the field in the first year and lose none of his usual yield from his field.

You be the judge of why Mali is making the decision to produce more jatropha. Is this a case for demand or supply? Which curve would shift? Which determinant is causing this shift?

But here in Mali, one of the poorest nations on earth, a number of small-scale projects aimed at solving local problems — the lack of electricity and rural poverty — are blossoming across the country to use the existing supply of jatropha to fuel specially modified generators in villages far off the electrical grid.

“We are focused on solving our own energy problems and reducing poverty,” said Aboubacar Samaké, director of a government project aimed at promoting renewable energy. “If it helps the world, that is good, too.”

This is very interesting information for you to consider as you are wondering about environmental sustainability, a real life economic issue.

Jatropha’s proponents say it avoids the major pitfalls of other biofuels, which pose significant environmental and social risks. Places that struggle to feed their populations, like Mali and the rest of the arid Sahel region, can scarcely afford to give up cultivable land for growing biofuel crops. Other potential biofuels, like palm oil, have encountered resistance by environmentalists because plantations have encroached on rain forests and other natural habitats.

But jatropha can grow on virtually barren land with relatively little rainfall, so it can be planted in places where food does not grow well. It can also be planted beside other crops farmers grow here, like millet, peanuts and beans, without substantially reducing the yield of the fields; it may even help improve output of food crops by, among other things, preventing erosion and keeping animals out.

So try to apply what you have learned about opportunity costs, economic growth and development, as well as supply and demand and analyze these economic events in Mali. I look forward to your comments

Vindy.com - Ethanol affects price of pork, China’s staple

What does the biofuel we put in our cars have to do with the meat we eat with our noodles and rice? Economics has an answer to this question! This week in AP Economics we learned that market supply of a product is determined not only by the price of the product but also by several “non-price determinants of supply”. To help remember these we learned an acronym:

    S- subsidies and taxes
    T- technology
    O- other related goods prices
    R- resource costs
    E- expected future prices
    S- size of the market (# of firms)

The article above talks about the relationship between the demand for ethanol, which is a corn-based biofuel being manufactured in record quantities all over the world, and the price of China’s staple protein source, pork.

Read the article, and discuss which determinants of supply are being affected, and describe the impact on the pork market (think of the supply and demand curves and equilibrium price).

As the price of pork goes up, what do you think is happening in the market for substitutes in consumption, such as chicken? How will the rising pork prices affect demand for chicken? Assuming that pork and chicken are also substitutes in production, how will the changes in the pork market affect the supply of chicken? What can we expect to happen to the price of other related goods as pork prices continue to rise?

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National Geographic News Photo Gallery: Week in Photos: Monster Hog

Near Delta, Alabama, May 3, 2007—Hogzilla may be headed for horror-movie heaven, but the massive swine that became an Internet sensation in 2004 may have been bested, size wise, by this reportedly wild pig killed May 3 by Jamison Stone, 11, and reported by the Associated Press on Wednesday.

From tip to tail, the newfound hog—dubbed “Monster Pig”—measures 9 feet, 4 inches (284 centimeters) and weighs in at 1,051 pounds (477 kilograms), according to Stone’s father.

At a 150-acre (60-hectare), fenced hunting range, Stone said, he shot the huge beast eight times with a revolver before tracking it with his father and guides for three hours. Finally, the boy shot the hog at point-blank range, killing the animal, the AP reported.

While hunting by children is legal in Alabama, officials are investigating whether anyone had transported and released the live feral pig into the hunting preserve, which would violate state law.

Okay, so maybe this one’s a stretch for a blog about economics, but sometimes when you see something in the news this amazing, you just have to share it with the world! Let’s see if I can come up with some questions about this one!

Discussion Questions:

1. What impact would “monster hog” have on the price of pork (assuming it goes to market)?
2. What will happen in the beef market once “monster hog’s” meat reaches the market? Explain.
3. Can you think of a product that might be a compliment to pork? Describe
   what will happen in that product’s market thanks to “monster hog”.

Looks like China could use a few monster pigs of its own to relax the steep increase in pork prices recently!

Tighter supplies lead to big price rises for pork, eggs-21food.com

THE prices of pork and eggs have soared in past weeks across China due largely to tighter supplies and increasing production costs…Food products account for 33 percent of the CPI in China with meat, poultry and related products making up about 20 percent.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, live pigs nationwide were 71.3 percent more expensive than a month earlier, and pork, 29.3 percent higher.

In Beijing, the price of slaughtered pigs went up more than 30 percent in recent days…

An outbreak of blue ear disease, also known as Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome, among pigs in Guangdong Province and the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, causing many deaths and a large amount of pigs to be culled, according to the National Development and Reform Commission…

“This sent a strong signal for distributors to jack up prices,” said Xu, adding that this exacerbated the unbalanced supply and demand.

“Pig raisers have lost money in the past couple years and they are reluctant to raise pigs. This led to a marginal decline in live pigs this year.”

Still worse, edible oil and grain prices rose at the beginning of this year, and feed prices followed suit.

Grain prices have risen largely due to an anticipated decline in output this summer and will continue to increase slightly in the coming weeks, boosting the prices of pork

Discussion Questions:

1. What is the “CPI” and why has it risen in China recently?
2. Does this article discuss the determinants of demand or the determinants of supply? Which determinant is being affected in the pork market?
3. What is happening in the market for pork in China? Which curve is shifting, supply or demand?
4. What “strong signal” led pork distributors to “jack up prices”?
5. If the price of pork continues to rise, what should happen to the supply of pork? Explain.

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