YouTube - ACDCLeadership’s Channel

More econ review videos from my new favorite YouTube channel, Jacob Clifford’s Econ Concepts in 60 Seconds.

To review for the upcoming test, you will join a small group and watch one of the four videos on the Perfect Competition. After watching and discussing one video with your group, you will be re-assigned to another group with students who watched a different video. You will then lead a short discussion on your original video with your new group.

With your first group – 15 minutes: As your group watches its assigned video, have your notes open in front of you and draw the graphs Mr. Clifford draws along with him. Pause the video where necessary to have time to draw graphs. Take notes while watching the video so you can teach it to another group. With your group, prepare a short discussion of the video’s main points, including:

• What rule or lesson about Perfect Competition does the video focus on?
• What did you already know that this video reminded you of or reinforced your understanding of?
• What did this video introduce that was new to you?
• How were graphs used to teach the concepts?

With your second group – 20 minutes: For the second part of this assignment, there should be four new groups, each including one member of the four original groups.

• Each group member should lead a 2-3 minute discussion of the video he or she watched in the first group.
• Go over each of the discussion points from above.
• Answer any questions your new group members have about video you watched.

Group 1 - The Profit Maximization Rule – MR=MC:

Group 2 - Perfect Competition in the short-run:

Group 3 - Perfect Competition in the long-run:

Group 4 - The Shut-Down Rule in Perfect Competition:

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AP Question of the week:

Refer to the graph to answer the questions that follow:

1. The graph above shows the short-run costs faced by a firm in a perfectly competitive industry. Identify the cost curves that are denoted by each of the following:
   1. Curve 1
   2. Curve 2
   3. Curve 3
2. Explain why Curve 1 intersects Curves 2 and 3 at the precise points that it does.
3. Identify and explain the economic “law” that determines and HOW it determines the shape of Curve 1.
4. At which price(s) would this firm be earning economic profits when producing at quantity Q1? Explain.
5. At which price(s) would this firm shut down when producing at Q1? Explain

IB Question of the week:

1. Explain how, in theory, a flexible exchange rate system should lead to the automatic stabilization of a nation’s current account balance. Use supply and demand diagrams to illustrate your answer
2. Referencing the Marshal Lerner Condition, explain the possible effects of a depreciation of a nation’s currency on its current account balance.

Greg Mankiw’s Blog: Take Out Your Pencils 2

Harvard’s Greg Mankiw just keep them coming! Here’s another micro problem from the esteemed professor and textbook author’s blog. Several readers enjoyed challenging themselves with his last Micro problem, so I will re-publish Mankiw’s test question here to see if people can solve it in the comment section on this blog (sorry Professor Mankiw, you have comments turned off on your blog, so how are your readers to know if they have solved it correctly?)

The town of Wiknam has 5 residents whose only activity is producing and consuming fish. They produce fish in two ways. Each person who works on a fish farm raises 2 fish per day. Each person who goes fishing in the town lake catches X fish per day. X depends on N, the number of residents fishing in the lake. In particular,

X = 6 – N.

Each resident is attracted to the job that pays more fish.

a. Why do you suppose that X, the productivity of each fisherman, falls as N, the number of fishermen, rises? What economic term would you use to describe the fish in the town lake? Would the same description apply to the fish from the farms? Explain.

b. The town’s Freedom Party thinks every individual should have the right to choose between fishing in the lake and farming without government interference. Under its policy, how many of the residents would fish in the lake and how many would work on fish farms? How many fish are produced?

c. The town’s Efficiency Party thinks Wiknam should produce as many fish as it can. To achieve this goal, how many of the residents should fish in the lake and how many should work on the farms? (Hint: Create a table that shows the number of fish produced—on farms, from the lake, and in total—for each N from 0 to 5.)

d. The Efficiency Party proposes achieving its goal by taxing each person fishing in the lake by an amount equal to T fish per day and distributing the proceeds equally among all Wiknam residents. Calculate the value of T that would yield the outcome you derived in part (c).

e. Compared with the Freedom Party’s hands-off policy, who benefits and who loses from the imposition of the Efficiency Party’s fishing tax?

Greg Mankiws Blog: Take Out Your Pencils

I love that Harvard Economics professor Gregory Mankiw blogs, but I hate that has de-activated the comments on his blog. Yesterday he posted a question from his own Harvard introductory economics class.  Since he doesn’t allow comments though, I cannot tell if I’m solving it correctly. So I will re-publish it here and ask my readers to solve the problem in the comment section.

IB and AP students who have studied microeconomic should be able to put some of their basic algebra skills to work to solve this one.

Only one firm produces and sells soccer balls in the country of Wiknam, and as the story begins, international trade in soccer balls is prohibited. The following equations describe the monopolist’s demand, marginal revenue, total cost, and marginal cost:

Demand: P = 10 – Q
Marginal Revenue: MR = 10 – 2Q
Total Cost: TC = 3 + Q + 0.5 Q^2
Marginal Cost: MC = 1 + Q

where Q is quantity and P is the price measured in Wiknamian dollars.

a. How many soccer balls does the monopolist produce? At what price are they sold? What is the monopolist’s profit?

b. One day, the King of Wiknam decrees that henceforth there will be free trade—either imports or exports— of soccer balls at the world price of $6. The firm is now a price taker. What happens to domestic production of soccer balls? To domestic consumption? Does Wiknam export or import soccer balls?

c. In our analysis of international trade in Chapter 9, a country becomes an exporter when the price without trade is below the world price and an importer when the price without trade is above the world price. Does that conclusion hold in your answers to parts (a) and (b)? Explain.

d. Suppose that the world price was not $6 but, instead, happened to be exactly the same as the domestic price without trade as determined in part (a). Would anything have changed when trade was permitted? Explain.

Post your solutions below, I really want to know if I have solved it correctly!

I’ve recently added two new great tools for Econ teachers to this blog that I think can really benefit teachers who decide to use them. Both of the following resources can be found in the sidebar to the right of this blog.

First, I have created a Diigo Group for Econ Teachers that is open for anyone to join. A Diigo group essentially is a social network for people with shared interests. The Econ Teacher group will be a place where Econ teachers can share bookmarks to online resources for use in the classroom. More than just a bookmarking site, however, Diigo allows users to annotate, highlight and leave sticky notes on articles, blogs, and other websites posted to the group, which can then be seen by group members, and further annotated. A website such as the CIA World Factbook, the BLS, or BEA, or an article from the Financial Times or Wall Street Journal thus becomes a shared document for discussion and reflection amongst any and all teachers who find it useful.

Diigo groups also have discussion forum features, so the Econ Teacher Group will become a forum for sharing collective research and resource ideas, as well as a forum for discussing how technology and the web can be used to enrich economics education. Join the Econ Teacher Diigo Group now to help grow this new social network for Econ teachers! (Once you’ve joined Diigo, I recommend adding the Diigo toolbar to your browser to make bookmarking and annotating sites to the group easy!)

Secondly, I am happy to endorse my friend and colleague Mike Fladien’s entrepreneurial endeavor aimed at helping high school Economics students prepare for their exams, “EconExamCram”. EconExamCram is an iPhone or iTouch App for sale in the iTunes store for $1.99. From the app’s description:

This app is available for download on iTunes. I intended this to aid students in preparing for tests in microeconomics. It’s a comprehensive review of 80% of the concepts covered in a micro class.

I believe that students today want to learn using today’s technology. Today’s technology is iPods, Smart Boards, audience response systems, flash animation and more. When I developed this app, I developed it for the on-the-go student who values appearance too. The student I envisioned was one who had a challenging schedule and one or more after school activities. They will carry an iPod with them, but not a five pound textbook. The student I envisioned was one who studied in “micro sessions” of 10 or 15 minutes. The touch was a natural tool for these students.

Congratulations to Mike on developing this app and making it available to us and our students to help prepare for the AP and IB Exams. Do your kids a favor and give them all the link to this app so they can start reviewing for your tests on their phones today!

The last great resource I have added to my sidebar this week is an RSS feed to a YouTube channel I’ve recently discovered. Jacob Clifford, an AP Economics teacher in San Diego, has recently begun producing and publishing a series of review videos for the AP Economics student. He calls them “Economic Concepts in 60 Seconds”.

Jacob is an enthusiastic, energetic young Econ teacher whose lecture style is fast paced and easy to follow. An since the lectures are on YouTube, students (and teachers!) can watch them over and over until his explanations of econ concepts is clear. In each video, he illustrates the concepts on a whiteboard while clearly (and quickly) explaining them in a fun and entertaining way. So far he has only produced videos up through perfect competition in the AP Micro course, but he promises to keep adding more throughout the school year.

You’ll be able to follow Jacob’s latest video posts by checking the RSS feed on my sidebar when visiting the blog. I’m hoping to team up with Jacob somehow in the future to get his videos a wider audience through this blog or in some other collaborative way.

At this point in the course, you may find yourself asking, “what is the difference between microeconomics and macroeconomics?” It has been a long time since we first defined these terms at the beginning of the course. The purpose of this post is to introduce some basic Macro concepts help clear up the confusing and not so obvious differences between these two areas of economics.

A teacher of mine once explained the difference between micro and macro using the example of a tree and a forest. Microeconomics is the like the study of an individual tree, standing in a thick forest of thousands of individual trees of different species. A microeconomist might study the systems that make an individual tree function efficiently, providing it with the sustanence it needs to thrive in the forest. A macroeconomist, however, will take a broader look at the forest as a whole, and observe how the thousands of trees work together in conjunction with the sun, the soil, the oxygen, nitrogen, and H2O in the environment that make the entire forest function efficiently as one giant organism.

Put literally, the tree is like an individual market. This may be a product market like the market for apples, or a resource market like the market for apple pickers. Microeconomists will study the characteristics of an individual market: the firms and their costs, tradeoffs, challenges presented by competition or the inefficiencies that result from a lack thereof, and the buyers in the market: the alternatives and trade-offs they face, the utility they receive and the decisions they make based on these factors. Microeconomics concerns itself not with the health of the economy as a whole, rather with the individual markets, firms, and consumers within the economy, and the challenges of efficiency and resource allocation faced by those markets.

Macroeconomics, on the other hand, studies the health of the economy as a whole. Macro deals with aggregates, or “collections of specific economic units treated as if they were one. ” For example, instead of studying price of a product, as a microeconomist would, a macroeconomist looks at the price level in the whole economy. Whereas a microeconomist looks at supply and demand in a particular market, a macroeconomist studies aggregate supply and aggregate demand, assessing the collective marginal benefit of all consumers and marginal costs of all producers. Instead of quantity supplied, the macroeconomist examines aggregate output, or gross domestic product. Instead of underallocation and overallocation of resources, the macroeconomists concerns himself with unemployment and inflation.

When it comes to the role of government, macroeconomics has a lot more to say about the role a central government should play in managing the economy as a whole. One major theme of microeconomics is that competitive markets, when left alone by government, tend to achieve efficient allocations of resources. You’ll find that in Macro, however, the government often plays a central part in stimulating and slowing down the level of economic activity in the economy, using tools such as fiscal and monetary policy.

Also in macroeconomics, we’ll study in more depth the role that comparative advantage plays in the economic exchanges that take place between nations. International trade also involves the exchange of foreign currencies, which we’ll try to understand by studying exchange rates and the role that governments play in manipulating and controlling the values of their currencies.

Macroeconomics will prove to be particularly relevant to the events going on in the recent turbulent global economy.  If have listened to the news lately you’ve heard world leaders, political pundits and commentators from all political and economic leanings use words like “bailout”, “fiscal stimulus”, “monetary easing”, “deficit spending” and others; all concepts having to do with macroeconomics. In the next few months, you will begin to see the forest through the trees as we take on the exciting  and challenging field of macroeconomics.

Assignment: Using your economics text, attempt to complete the table below. On the left are microeconomics concepts you have already studied as part of the course. In the right column, brainstorm and identify the macro concept that corresponds with each of the micro concepts. For example, in microeconomcis a when there is a decrease in demand price falls and quantity decreases. In macroeconomics, when there is a decrease in AGGREGATE demand, _____________ and _______________ change. See if you can fill in the blanks! If you get stumped, Mr. Welker’s completed version of the table can be viewed by clicking here.

YouTube – jodiecongirl’s Channel.

Jodi Beggs, aka “econgirl” is a PhD candidate at Harvard where she teaches introductory Microeconomics to Masters students. She has a great blog written for econ students and casual readers called Economists do it with Models. She also produces a series of mini-lectures on topics from Greg Mankiw’s textbook Principles of Economics (a text widely used by AP Econ teachers).

In Jodi’s own words,

I’m offering up these lectures either as a complement to your current economics course or as a substitute for what you didn’t learn the first time you took economics

Another great resource for high school economics teachers! I had my students watch the videos on the Demand Curve and the Determinants of Demand today, while jotting down in their notes the topics they already knew, did not yet know, and the questions they had based on Jodi’s videos.

Thanks, Jodi! I hope more econ teachers like myself find ways to put your great resource to use in our classes!

Once again I have updated the series of 20 study guides covering every unit from the AP and IB Economics syllabus. The latest free versions of my study guides for students include for the first time hyperlinks to blog posts relating to every topic in the course, placed throughout the study guides, providing students with easy to follow links to articles connecting the concepts they study to events going on in the real world. Through the blog, which isconstantly updated with current topics, students can participate in a global discussion among Econ students through comments, as well as see how the graphs and concepts they study can be applied to a real world context.

Student have been downloading my free study guides for over two years, and even college students have benefited from the resources here. Just last week I received the following email from a former AP Econ student now studying business at Boston University:

Hey Mr. Welker, just wanted to let you know that I’m retaking economics for my business requirements… The pace is SO FAST! But I’m using your wikinomics as a study tool. It’s really helpful. In fact, all your former students here at BU admit that they use your study guides all the time because they’re often times better than the resources that BU gives us. I guess that’s something you can share to your current econ students!

For teachers, lecture notes in either SMART Notebook or PowerPoint format are available for purchase. Several teachers have already purchased my presentations and begun using them in their own classes. When you purchase a unit, it is yours to edit, re-format, enhance, and re-arrange anyway you wish.

Check out the latest versions of the free study guides and browse the catalog of unit lecture notes available for purchase in PowerPoint or Notebook format. If you like what you see, direct your students to my site, and please leave a comment at the bottom of the page! Enjoy!

A.P. Economics vs. Real Life – Economix Blog – NYTimes.com

Econ Exams: Are The Correct Answers Still Right? : NPR

Listen to the 3 minute NPR podcast here

It’s interesting to me that AP Economics has gotten two major mentions in the mainstream media recently, both asking the same question: Does high school Economics teach kids about the real world anymore?

Both the New York Times and NPR refer to a past AP Macro multiple choice question, this one from the NYT:

Policy makers concerned about fostering long-run growth in an economy that is currently in a recession would most likely recommend which of the following combinations of monetary and fiscal policy actions?
MONETARY POLICY…/…FISCAL POLICY
a. sell bonds…/…reduce taxes
b. sell bonds…/…raise taxes
c. no change…/…raise taxes
d. buy bonds…/…reduce spending
e. buy bonds…/…no change

The correct answer, as readers should know, is e. Buying bonds increases the money supply and lowers interest rates, while choosing not to engage in expansionary fiscal policy means no crowding out of private investment will occur and thus “fostering long-run growth” in the economy.

The NYT blogger writes:

But that answer does not even remotely resemble what policy makers have actually done in response to the current crisis (or, for that matter, in response to previous recessions).

It’s true, the severity of the current recession has forced the government and Fed to create new monetary and fiscal tricks, but the fundamentals behind a response indicated in answer e. still hold true. Lowering interest rates to encourage private investment is a pro-growth policy for correcting a mild recession.

Anyway, I think it’s worth listening to the podcast from NPR and reading the blog post from the NYT. Definitely read the comments on the blog post too, some interesting points are made by readers.

 Other Media: Download

Liquidity preference, loanable funds, and Niall Ferguson (wonkish) – Paul Krugman Blog – NYTimes.com

Below is the loanable funds market at its current equilibrium, according to Krugman (I is investment demand for funds, S is the supply of loanable funds):

In Krugman’s words:

In effect, we have an incipient excess supply of savings even at a zero interest rate. And that’s our problem.

So what does government borrowing do? It gives some of those excess savings a place to go — and in the process expands overall demand, and hence GDP. It does NOT crowd out private spending, at least not until the excess supply of savings has been sopped up, which is the same thing as saying not until the economy has escaped from the liquidity trap.

In AP Macroeconomics, we teach that deficit-financed government expenditure decreases the supply of loanable funds as savers take their money out of commercial banks and invest in the bond market due to the attractive interest rates on government debt. Less funds available for the private sector drives up interest rates and crowds out private investment.

If the economy is producing close to the full-employment level and interest rates are positive, the decrease in supply of loanable funds can indeed drive up equilibrium interest rates and lead to the “crowding-out” of private investment. Krugman points out in this article that when the economy is at the “zero-bound” (i.e. when nominal interest rates are as low as they can go) and the quantity supplied of savings is still greater than the quantity demanded for investment, the government can effectively borrow from the public, decreasing the supply and correcting the surplus of savings without driving up interest rates in the private market. Put another way, the equilibrium interest rate is below zero, but the “zero-bound” acts as a price floor in the loanable funds market, resulting in a surplus of savings.

Government borrowing crowding out private investment is not something we can worry about during a recession, when low confidence and expectations have driven the supply of savings up and the demand for investment down. Public spending will divert funds from the private sector to the public sector, that’s true. But in today’s case, savings are sitting idle in the private sector, so government borrowing is putting those fund to use when the private sector has failed to do so.

Discussion Questions:

1. Why does the supply of loanable funds (S in the graph above) slope upwards? Why does the demand for loanable funds (I in the graph) slope downwards?
2. Deficit financed government spending decreases the supply of loanable funds. Why?
3. Crowding-out is not the only possible down-side of deficit spending by the government. What are some other long-term effects of governments running budget deficits year after year?

The latest version of my study guides for Advanced Placement and International Baccalaureate Economics are available for download for free by following the link at the top of this blog for “W.W. Study Guides”.

Students and teachers may download these study guides for free. Teachers who are interested in ordering the orginal Smart Notebook files to use in their own classes may contact me to indicate which units they would like to order.

Feel free to make a small donation if you decide to download the .pdfs, these study guides represent hundreds of hours of thoughtful work over my last three years of teaching AP and IB Economics. Enjoy, and good luck on the upcoming AP and IB Exams! – Jason Welker

Teaching the Prisoners’ Dilemma Will Never Be the Same Again « Cheap Talk

Rarely does such a perfect illustration of the Prisoner’s Dilemma come along for Econ teachers to use in their classroom:

The payoffs are clear:

Each player has a weakly dominant strategy, which is to choose to steal. By choosing to steal, the player has a chance at maximizing his own payoff, but will do no worse than he would if his opponent also chooses to steal and at least will have the satisfaction of thwarting his opponent’s attempt to steal the money.

There are three Nash equilibria in the game, which are outcomes at which a player can not do better on his or her own by changing his or her strategy. The outcome Steve was hoping for by chosing “split” (50/50) was not a Nash equilibrium because Sarah knows she can do better if she chooses steal when Steve chooses split. Steve doomed himself by choosing split because he should know that Sarah’s dominant strategy is to choose steal. However, Sarah would also have doomed herself by choosing split because she should assume that Steve would also chose steal since steal is a dominant strategy for him too.

John Nash, who pioneered the field of Game Theory, assumed that humans were coldly rational, self-interested, deceptive creatures that would not hesitate to stab one another in the back to get what was best for themselves. His theory of human behavior is only partially proven correct in this game, in which Steve is shown to be the sucker and Sarah the coldly rational self-interested player. The best chance for Steve to go home with any money would have been for him to use the one minute of discussion time to convince Sarah that he would choose SPLIT, yet be willing to go home with something LESS THAN $50,000 and accept that Sarah was going to choose STEAL. He could have threatened to chose steal if she did not agree to share her winnings with him to some extent. Then again, any promise Sarah makes she could later break, thus further empowering the players to choose steal.

Discussion questions:

1. What in the world is going on here? Why did Sarah choose steal rather than collaborate with Steve and share the $100,000?
2. Was Steve totally wrong to choose split? What would you have done in his situation?
3. How do the choices faced by Steve and Sarah relate to the choices faced by firms in oligopolitic markets? Now that you’ve seen this video, can you explain why collusive agreements between oligopolists often fall apart? Why do cartels such as OPEC often fail to achieve the high price targets agreed upon in meetings of their leaders?

Another unit of Welker’s Wikinomics Study Guides is now available for download on the W.W. Study Guides page of this blog. The latest edition is IB Unit 2.4 Market Failure and the Role of Government. Below is an outline of the unit. It can be downloaded for free as a .pdf or the .notebook file can be ordered if you are a teacher who uses Smart Boards to teach Economics. Enjoy!

Inside Obama’s Green Budget – Forbes.com

Some say that Global Warming may be the greatest market failure of all. This podcast was originally broadcast in January of 2007 while George Bush was still in office. The commentator claims that global warming is “nothing but one giant market failure”, arguing that the United States therefore must get serious about tackling the problem.

 

 Global Warming - one giant market failure [1:28m]: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

The allocation of resources towards carbon emitting industries has almost undoubtedly contributed to the warming of the planet over the last half century. Only recently have governments begun taking active measures to reduce the impact of industry on the environment through greater regulation of polluting industries, employing corrective taxes in some instances and market-based approaches to pollution reduction in others.

US President Barack Obama, unlike his predecessor, appears to be serious about correcting the “market failure” represented by global warming:

Obama’s budget, announced Thursday, looks to fund a host of new energy programs, from carbon sequestration to electric transmission upgrades. It would also provide the EPA with a $10.5 billion budget for 2010, a 34% increase over the likely 2009 budget. Nineteen million dollars of that would be used to upgrade greenhouse gas reporting measures.

The Interior Department would get $12 billion for 2010. The agency would use part of the money to asses the availability of alternative energy resources throughout the country.

Funding comes from elaborate carbon “cap and trade” program, which puts a price on emitting pollution and is the core of Obama’s plans. Starting in 2012, the government would sell permits giving businesses the right to emit pollution, generating $646 billion in revenue through 2019.

During those years, the number of available permits would gradually decline, forcing businesses to buy the increasingly scarce, and costly, rights to pollute on an open market. Obama hopes that the rising cost of permits will encourage businesses to invest in clean technologies as a cheaper alternative to meeting pollution mandates, helping to cut greenhouse gas production to 14% below 2005 levels by 2020.

Below is a diagram that illustrates precisely how the Obama cap and trade plan is meant to work. Notice that between 2012 and 2020 the cost to firms of emitting pollution will increase dramatically, while at the same time the total amount of carbon emissions in the US economy will fall due to regular reductions in the number of permits issued to industry.

The Obama cap and trade scheme is not the first experiment with such a market based approach to externality reduction:

Europe established such a market in 2005. But some E.U. governments allocated too many credits at the outset, causing the value of some permits to fall by half and making it relatively easy for large polluters to simply buy credits rather than cut emissions. Overall emissions grew in 2005 and 2006. In 2008, E.U. emissions dropped 3%; 40% of that drop was attributed to the carbon trading scheme.

Europe’s cap and trade program took a few years before it began having any noticeable impact on the emission of carbon by European industry. While unpopular among the firms who are forced to pay to pollute, the fall in emissions in Europe shows that a market for carbon may be effective in forcing firms “internalize” the costs of carbon emissions, which until now have been born by society and the environment in the form of the negative effects of global warming.

Discussion Questions:

1. Why do you think tradeable pollution permits are more politically viable than a direct tax on firms’ carbon emissions?
2. Why did Europe’s carbon emission permit market fail to reduce emissions over its first couple of years of implementation?
3. Is making firms pay to pollute a good idea in the middle of a recession? Do you think that we should even be worrying about the environment when millions of people are losing their jobs and entire industries are struggling to survive?

This week in AP Microeconomics students get to play online games, watch movies, and compete with their classmates in strategic competitions in which there are proud winners and sad losers. That’s right, we’re studying oligopoly!

What makes oligopolistic markets, which characterized by a few large firms, so different from the other market structures we study in Microeconomics? The answer is that unlike in more competitive markets in which firms are of much smaller size and one firm’s behavior has little or no effect on its competitors, an oligopolist that decides to lower its prices, change its output, expand into a new market, offer new services, or adverstise, will have powerful and consequential effects on the profitability of its competitors. For this reason, firms in oligopolistic markets are always considering the behavior of their competitors when making their own economic decisions.

To understand the behavior of non-collusive oligopolists, economists have employed a mathematical tool called Game Theory. The assumption is that large firms in competition will behave similarly to individual players in a game such as poker. Firms, which are the “players” will make “moves” (referring to economic decisions such as whether or not to advertise, whether to offer discounts or certain services, make particular changes to their products, charge a high or low price, or any other of a number of economic actions) based on the predicted behavior of their competitors.

If a large firm competing with other large firms understands the various “payoffs” (referring to the profits or losses that will result from a particular economic decision made by itself and its competitors) then it will be better able to make a rational, profit-maximizing (or loss minimizing) decision based on the likely actions of its competitors. The outcome of such a situation, or game, can be predicted using payoff matrixes. Below is an illustration of a game between two coffee shops competing in a small town.

As illustrated above, the tools of Game Theory, including the “payoff matrix”, can prove helpful in helping firms decide how to respond to particular actions by their competitors in oligopolistic markets. Of course, in the real world there are often more than two firms in competition in a particular market, and the decisions that they must make include more than simply to advertise or not. Much more complicated, multi-player games with several possible “moves” have also been developed and used to help make tough economic decisions a little easier in the world of competition.

While Game Theory can be useful in predicting firm behavior in oligopolistic markets, believe it or not that is not its most useful application developed. In fact, would you believe me if I told you that Game Theory may be precisely what saved the world from nuclear holocaust during the 20th Century? It’s true. The US government employed Game Theory to avert annihilation by nuclear attack from the Soviet Union during much of the 20th Century. This video tells the story!

CBO Director’s Blog » Macroeconomic Effects of the Senate Stimulus Legislation

The February 9th edition of the excellent NPR show, Planet Money reported on a letter sent from the director of the Congressional Budget Office to the Senate, forecasting the short-run and long-run macroeconomic effects of the House Stimulus Package.

 

 Crowding-out and the Stimulus Package [1:23m]: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

It turns out the director of the CBO has his own blog on which he published his letter to the Senate. Here are some highlights:

CBO estimates that the Senate legislation would raise output by between 1.4 percent and 4.1 percent by the fourth quarter of 2009; by between 1.2 percent and 3.6 percent by the fourth quarter of 2010; and by between 0.4 percent and 1.2 percent by the fourth quarter of 2011. CBO estimates that the legislation would raise employment by 0.9 million to 2.5 million at the end of 2009; 1.3 million to 3.9 million at the end of 2010; and 0.6 million to 1.9 million at the end of 2011…

Most of the budgetary effects of the Senate legislation would occur over the next few years. Even if the fiscal stimulus persisted, however, the short-run effects on output that operate by increasing demand for goods and services would eventually fade away. In the long run, the economy produces close to its potential output on average, and that potential level is determined by the stock of productive capital, the supply of labor, and productivity. Short-run stimulative policies can affect long-run output by influencing those three factors, although such effects would generally be smaller than the short-run impact of those policies on demand.

In contrast to its positive near-term macroeconomic effects, the Senate legislation would reduce output slightly in the long run, CBO estimates, as would other similar proposals. The principal channel for this effect is that the legislation would result in an increase in government debt.  To the extent that people hold their wealth in the form of government bonds rather than in a form that can be used to finance private investment, the increased government debt would tend to “crowd out” private investment—thus reducing the stock of private capital and the long-term potential output of the economy.

The negative effect of crowding out could be offset somewhat by a positive long-term effect on the economy of some provisions—such as funding for infrastructure spending, education programs, and investment incentives, which might increase economic output in the long run. CBO estimated that such provisions account for roughly one-quarter of the legislation’s budgetary cost. Including the effects of both crowding out of private investment (which would reduce output in the long run) and possibly productive government investment (which could increase output), CBO estimates that by 2019 the Senate legislation would reduce GDP by 0.1 percent to 0.3 percent on net.

The fascinating thing about this letter from the Congressional Budget Office to the Senate is that it mentions so many of the Macroeconomic principles we teach in both AP and IB Economics.

• The nation’s potential output (PPC) is “determined by the stock of productive capital, the supply of labor, and productivity”.
  
• Fiscal stimulus’ effects, while possibly significant in the short-run, may result in less long-run growth due to “crowding-out” of private investment as the public puts its savings into government debt and takes it out of the market for loanable funds.
• A stimulus package should be made up of “funding for infrastructure spending, education programs, and investment incentives, which might increase economic output in the long run.” The negative effects of crowding-out could be offset through responsible government spending.

I find this letter to be surprisingly positive. The short-run forecast seems optimistic: as much as 3.6% GDP growth and as many as 3.9 million new jobs by the end of 2010. The negative growth effects of the stimulus resulting from increased government debt and the subsequent “crowding-out” of private investment are not predicted to set in until 2019.

I always tell my students that humans are “short-run creatures living in a long-run world”. I have to admit, this short-run creature is inclined to think that a stimulus package that puts nearly 4 million people to work and turns the US Economy back onto a path towards growth within two years is probably worth the long-run risk of sluggish growth ten years down the road due to the decline in private investment resulting from the debt-financed spending today.

This letter from the CBO also seems to address a debate recently undertaken in the AP Economics teacher email list: whether deficit-financed government spending affects the supply of or the demand for loanable funds in the economy.

To the extent that people hold their wealth in the form of government bonds rather than in a form that can be used to finance private investment, the increased government debt would tend to “crowd out” private investment—thus reducing the stock of private capital and the long-term potential output of the economy.

This passage from the director’s letter indicates that it is the supply, not the demand for loanable funds that shifts, driving up real interest rates in the economy. Savers will take their money out of banks and other lending institutions and put it in government bonds, reducing the amount of capital available for private investment. This can be illustrated as a leftward shift of the supply of loanable funds.

Discussion questions:

1. In evaluating the use of expansionary fiscal policy, we learn in IB Economics that the crowding-out of private investment will reduce the expansionary effect of increased government spending. Is crowding-out a problem during a recession? Why or why not?
2. Discuss the following statement: “In order to finance its budget deficit, the US government must borrow from the private sector.” How does the government borrow from the American people?
3. Will fiscal stimulus in the short-run lead to increased growth or decreased growth in the long-run? Discuss.

Professor Preston McAfee on Price Discrimination

(you must have RealPlayer to view this video. Mac users can download it here)

CalTech Economics professor Preston McAfee is an expert on prices. His research spans three decades and examines the pricing behavior of firms in various market structures. In the lecture linked above the professor shares several examples of firms practicing price discrimination. I was surprised to see that many of the examples he discusses are ones that I have been using in my own lectures on price discrimination for the last few years.

McAfee presents a mathematical formula for monopoly pricing, which no AP or IB text that I’ve seen has included:

Monopoly Price = [PED/(1-PED)] x MC where PED is the price elasticity of demand of the customer and MC is the firm’s marginal cost of production.

The basic idea is that the more inelastic the customer’s demand, the higher price the monopolist should charge over its marginal cost. The implication, therefore, is that a monopolist prefers to charge higher prices to customer’s whose demand is inelastic and lower prices to customers who are “price sensitive” or whose demand is elastic. The charging of different prices to different consumers for the exact same product is what economists call price discrimination.

McAfee begins talking about price discrimination at minute 8:44 in the video. His examples include:

• Movie theaters: Charge different prices based on age. Seniors and youth pay less since they tend to be more price sensitive.
• Gas stations: Gas stations will charge different prices in different neighborhoods based on relative demand and location.
• Grocery stores: Offer coupons to price sensitive consumers (people whose demand is inelastic won’t bother to cut coupons, thus will pay more for the same products as price sensitive consumers who take the time to collect coupons).
• Quantity discounts: Grocery stores give discounts for bulk purchases by customers who are price sensitive (think “buy one gallon of milk, get a second gallon free”… the family of six is price sensitive and is likely to pay less per gallon than the dual income couple with no kids who would never buy two gallons of milk).
• Dell Computers: Dell price discriminates based on customer answers to questions during the online shopping process. Dell charges higher prices to large business and government agencies than to households and small businesses for the exact same product!
• Hotel room rates: Some hotels will charge less for customers who bother to ask about special room rates than to those who don’t even bother to ask.
• Telephone plans: Some customers who ask their provider for special rates will find it incredibly easy to get better calling rates than if they don’t bother to ask.
• Damaged goods discounts: When a company creates  and sells two products that are essentially identical except one has fewer features and costs significantly less to capture more price-sensitive consumers.
• Book publishers: Some paperbacks cost more to manufacture but sell to consumers for significantly less than hard covers. Price sensitive consumers will buy the paperback while those with inelastic demand will pay more for the hard cover.
• Airline ticket prices: Weekend stayover discounts for leisure travelers mean business people, whose demand for flights is highly inelastic, but who will rarely stay over a weekend, pay far more for a roundtrip ticket that departs and returns during the week.

McAfee also goes into a fascinating discussion of price dispersion which is essentially a theory of oligopoly pricing. All Econ teachers should watch this video and find examples of price discrimination and oligopoly pricing that they can incorporate into their own class.

If you’re up for a challenge, try deciphering some of the mathematics in McAfee’s free, downloadable intro to economics text, available here.

In  IB Economics, we are currently learning about how firms in imperfectly competitive markets differentiate their products in order to increase their market power and their price-making power.

In a market with a few large firms such as the laptop computer market, companies must do what they can to increase demand for their own products over those of their competitors. Apple Computer is an example of a company that has successfully differentiated its line of laptop computers in recent years, regularly improving the features of its line of MacBooks to attract consumers away from its competitors and into the world of Macs.

Last year Apple launched the MacBook Air, the lightest and thinnest laptop on the market, creating a huge buzz in the technology world and converting millions to Apple’s line of laptops. This year, Apple has launched yet another innovation in laptop computing, in the hope of once again increasing demand for its products, and making consumers think they cannot live without the sleek, shiny Apple computers. This year’s innovation? The “MacBook Wheel”… watch:

Apple Introduces Revolutionary New Laptop With No Keyboard

The goal of an imperfectly competitive firm like Apple is to increase its market power by increasing demand for its particular product through product differentiation, advertising, developing brand loyalty, and “hype”: all forms of non-price competition. If Apple were to simply charge a lower price than its competitors for its products, it would also succeed in increasing the amount of computers it sells to consumers, but may also end up accepting lower profits due to the lower prices it must sell for.

Through differentiation, which means making its products unique and attractive to consumers, Apple attempts to increase market demand for its computers, while simultaneously making demand less elastic. With higher, more inelastic demand, Apple gains price-making power over the laptop computer market, as can be seen in the graphs below, which show that after the successful launch of a new product like the MacBook wheel Apple is able to charge a higher price, produce a similar quantity, and earn greater economic profits.

In the video, one customer says that he’d buy “buy almost anything if it’s shiny and its made by Apple”. Such statements reflect that among loyal customers, demand for Apple’s products is highly inelastic. While the firm is certainly not a monopolist in the market for laptop computers, Apple has surely succeeded to increase its market power and thus its power over prices through product differentiation, brand loyalty, and the “hype” surrounding the launch of new products like the MacBook Wheel.

Discussion questions:

1. In the graphs above, the slopes of the demand curve increases after successful product differentiation by Apple. Why does this happen?
2. Assuming the market for laptop computers is monopolistically competitive, what will likely happen to Apples economic profits over time? What must Apple do if it wishes to maintain its profits in the long-run?
3. What are some real ways companies like Apple and its competitors have attempted to differentiate their products over the years? Would YOU buys a MacBook Wheel if it were real?

It has been several weeks since my last post on WW. Of course, the holidays are supposed to be a time of rest and relaxation, as well as lots of skiing here in Switzerland.

As we return to class at Zurich International School next week, I will once again resume blogging for economics teachers and students. My intention is to cut back slightly on the frequency of the posts I write this year. During 2009, readers can expect between 1 and 3 posts per week. Additionally, I intend to re-vamp and re-publish some of the nearly 400 posts that have been published here over the last two years, adapting them to current economic situations and connecting them to the syllabus of our introductory AP and IB Economics courses.

Another project in the works during the coming months here is the Welker’s Wikinomics AP and IB Economics Exam Study Guides. Last May, I published v1.0 of my Micro and Macroeconomics study guides right here to the blog for free download. Hundreds of copies were downloaded in the weeks leading up to the AP and IB Exams by students all over the world. This year, I intend once again to post study guides for Micro and Macroeconomics, as well as Intenrational Economics and Development Economics. The study guides will cover every unit of AP and IB Economics, and will once again be available for free download to students and teachers interested in using them for review.

What makes my study guides unique over the popular study guides from publishers like the Princeton Review and Barron’s is that they are PDFs containing active hyperlinks to websites and blog articles that can be used to enhance the review experience and give students relevant real world examples to incorporate into test answers. Also, my study guides are full-color and focus on graphical representation of economic concepts, rather than lengthy written explanations.

Expect the study guides to be published some time around mid-April, in time for students to download them for May’s AP and IB Exams.

To my students and other readers of Welker’s Wikinomics Blog, thanks for all your contributions in the comments, please keep visiting regularly to read the latest posts aimed at connecting the world-changing events shaping our economy and society to the concepts from AP and IB Economics.

Should the US bail-out their car industry? – Welker’s Wikinomics Page

Web 2.0 never ceases to amaze me. Over at our class wiki, Zurich International School students regularly debate economic issues that relate to the topics we are studying in IB and AP Economics. The latest hot topic of debate was started by an 11th grade Brazilian student, Mark, who posed the following question:

Should the US bail-out their car industry?
Monday, 4:04 PM EST

In America, everyone believes that the American car companies like GM, Ford and Chrysler, which are nearly bankrupt, should be bailed-out by the government, to save their national pride. In this week’s “The Economist” magazine, they argue that bailing-out the car industry would be a grave mistake. Firstly, they argue that it would “open an invitation” to other companies to apply for aid to survive the recession. Banks qualify for this help because the economy depends on them; the car industry in the US failing would not be so disastrous. Secondly, they argue that the car industry is shifting from the saturated (full, at its peak) markets to the fast-growing emerging markets. This means, even if the car businesses fail in America, they would still have opportunities in other countries. In Brazil for example, Fiat has a plant where they produce 800,000 cars each year… that is a new car coming off the production line each 20 seconds! And they are not slowing the production; the plant continues operating with three shifts a day!

So, should the US government bail-out GM, Ford and Chrysler, save many lost jobs, and one of their nation’s prides, or should they be influenced not to, by economists that predict it would not help the economy at all?

I love to see students take an interest in the issues dominating our news that tie so closely to the topics we study in our principles classes at the AP and IB levels. The debates are interesting, insightful, and conflicting yet valid viewpoints on controversial issues.

If you’re interested in the economic issues dominating our news and want to join the debate, join the Discussion Forum at Welker’s Wikinomics Wiki and share your points of view.