Nov 23 2010

Exchange rates and trade: a delicate balancing act, currently out of balance!

FT.com / Asia-Pacific – Renminbi at heart of trade imbalances.

“The Americans get the toys, the Chinese get the Treasuries and we get screwed.” Thus a European Union official once characterised the pattern of Beijing accumulating US assets by selling renminbis for dollars, while nothing stood in the way of a rapid and destabilising appreciation of the euro.

In a world of freely floating exchange rates trade imbalances between countries would ultimately be reduced and eliminated. At least, that’s the belief of those advocating a floating exchange rate between East Asian currencies and the United States.

Here’s how it is supposed to work:

  • Cheap labor and cheap imports from China following China’s joining the world economy 30 years ago led to a rapid increase in demand for Chinese manufactured goods in the US, creating growth, jobs, and rising national income for China.
  • A trade imbalance emerges between the US and China as US spending on imports increases more rapidly than America’s  sale of exports. If the Chinese currency were allowed to float freely on foreign exchange markets, however, this imbalance would be temporary, because…
  • The US current account deficit means, literally, that Americans are supplying more of their dollars in the foreign exchange market, while demanding more Chinese RMB. The forces of supply and demand would naturally lead to an appreciation of the RMB and a depreciation of the dollar.
  • The weaker dollar resulting from the trade deficit with China would eventually make Chinese goods less attractive to Americans. Despite their lower costs of production, the weak dollar makes imported Chinese goods more expensive and less appealing to the American consumer.
  • The strong RMB, on the other hand, makes American produced goods and services cheaper to Chinese consumers, who begin to import more from the US at the same time that Americans demand fewer of China’s products.
  • Through free-floating exchange rates, a current account imbalance is eventually reduced and eliminated as exchange rates adjust to the flows of goods and services between trading partners.

A graphical version of this story is told here:

Floating ER

This, of course, is precisely what has NOT happened, thanks to China’s strict management of the value of the RMB. In order to keep its currency weak, Beijing directly intervenes in foreign exchange markets, “by selling renmenbi for dollars” to accumulate American assets. As seen in the next graph, such interference has the effect of keeping the dollar strong against the RMB.

As any IB student knows, the Balance  of Payments between two countries includes not only the trade in goods and services, but also the flow of real and financial assets, such as government securities, stocks, real estate, factories, and so on, between the countries. China has actively promoted a policy of acquiring such American assets, which keeps demand for dollars strong in China, and supply of RMB high in America, without creating any jobs in manufacturing or services for Americans. China has financed America’s current account deficit by assuring it maintains a capital account surplus!

Put more simply, China has exported goods and services to America, while America has exported ownership of its real and financial assets to China. This is a major area of concern for US policy makers, who would like to see a more balanced current account between the two countries, since it is the export of goods and services that creates jobs for American workers, not the sale of bonds, stocks and real estate.

Discussion Questions:

  1. Why does Europe care about China’s fixed exchange rate with the US dollar?
  2. Do you believe that American demand for Chinese goods would actually decline if the RMB were allowed to appreciate against the dollar? Why or why not?
  3. Besides American workers and firms, who else suffers from a weak Chinese currency? How could China actually benefit from allowing the RMB to strengthen against the dollar?
  4. How does China maintain the RMB’s peg against the dollar without buying large quantities of US exports?

About the author:  Jason Welker teaches International Baccalaureate and Advanced Placement Economics at Zurich International School in Switzerland. In addition to publishing various online resources for economics students and teachers, Jason developed the online version of the Economics course for the IB and is has authored two Economics textbooks: Pearson Baccalaureate’s Economics for the IB Diploma and REA’s AP Macroeconomics Crash Course. Jason is a native of the Pacific Northwest of the United States, and is a passionate adventurer, who considers himself a skier / mountain biker who teaches Economics in his free time. He and his wife keep a ski chalet in the mountains of Northern Idaho, which now that they live in the Swiss Alps gets far too little use. Read more posts by this author

31 responses so far

31 Responses to “Exchange rates and trade: a delicate balancing act, currently out of balance!”

  1. Simon Strongon 03 Nov 2009 at 7:23 am

    1. Why does Europe care about China’s fixed exchange rate with the US dollar?

    Firstly the default currency for naming the value of an economy is calculated in dollars; therefore a weak dollar against a strong Euro would seem as a vast increase in the GDP of EEA nations. Vice versa a weaker currency against a strong dollar could collapse an economy (Asian financial crisis; late 90s).

    Secondly so long as China keeps its currency fixed, thus keeping the US dollar strong the EEA is able to export comparatively cheaply to the United States any products that it does so produce, but also creates incentives for Americans to travel over the pond to Europe which further increase the GDP of a nation.

    2. Do you believe that American demand for Chinese goods would actually decline if the RMB were allowed to appreciate against the dollar? Why or why not?

    The problem with the whole idea is that Chinese firms are able to produce goods at such a low price; a few dollars from manufacturing to shipping to tariffs to distribution costs to store add ons and so on. When the price of a good is at such a low level it seems unreasonable to assume any grat changes in price level. If the exchange rate is 10RMB per one dollar; then a balancing out of the exchange rates, say five to one, means that the price of a good made in China that cost 10RMB to make would go from costing 1 dollar to 2 dollars to make in China. The US however is more costly to produce in, comparatively to China, so therefore it is unlikely that there is going to be a great shift in demand as the price will still be extremely low.

    4. How does China maintain the RMB’s peg against the dollar without buying large quantities of US exports?

    The article says it above; by buying up non-goods and services the Chinese are buying assets that do not affect the unemployment levels of the states. These include things such as Government bonds, and financial assets (such as stocks – or debts that won't be paid back – economic crisis what?). By doing this they are taking away the amount of dollars in the US and increasing the number of RMB in the US – without buying items that create jobs for Americans; competition for China.

  2. Benji Rosenon 03 Nov 2009 at 3:37 pm

    The problem with floating exchange rates, is that it would destroy both the american and the Chinese economy. As Chinese goods became more expensive, americans would become less wealthy because they would be purchasing goods which were more expensive. The idea is also that the chinese start buying US goods at this point, because the US dollar would depreciate, but the average consumer has hardly any money in their pocket. It is true that as the rmb appreciates, what little money they have will increase in value, but if america stops buying their goods, unemployment will sperad like wildfire in china, and consumers will be hesitant to buy anything, let alone imported goods.

    What the chiniese government is doing is not only saving their own economy, but allowing for the supercharged growth the US has been enjoying for the last dozen years or so. Who cares if Chinese people own american assets, the west has owned chinese assets for centuries. In fact, the more foreign countries start investing in each other, the more pressure will be on governments to lower tarrifs, and help make the global economy more effitient.

    JOHN LENNON WAS AN ECONOMIST!!!!! sort of….

  3. Jason Welkeron 03 Nov 2009 at 4:37 pm

    Benji,

    By re-investing billions of dollars back into the US economy through the purchase of assets in the capital account, the Chinese government is essentially denying the Chinese people the ability to buy goods and services from the US in the current account. Wouldn't a stronger RMB make the Chinese consumer better off as they'd be able to partake in consumption of imports?

  4. christianoon 03 Nov 2009 at 5:11 pm

    3.Besides American workers and firms, who else suffers from a weak Chinese currency? How could China actually benefit from allowing the RMB to strengthen against the dollar?

    Chinese consumers suffer from a weak Chinese currency because they have to pay higher prices for imports from America. Thus, they do not get the chance to enjoy a wider range of foreign products with a higher quality.

    China could benefit from a stronger RMB because it would be able to acquire imports more cheaply. Chinese firms would be able to lower their production cost because of lower raw material costs and Chinese consumers could enjoy greater product variety and higher quality.

    4.How does China maintain the RMB’s peg against the dollar without buying large quantities of US exports?

    China maintains the RMB's peg by acquiring American financial assets which keeps demand for dollars and supply of RMB high. This would cause the dollar to appreciate and the RMB to depreciate.

  5. Theresaon 03 Nov 2009 at 5:15 pm

    1.Why does Europe care about China’s fixed exchange rate with the US dollar?

    There is a lot of trade between them going on. Like America, Europe depends a lot on Chinas imports. Especially firms often buy import products needed for their production from foreign countries. A flunctuating exchange rate would reduce business confindence.

    2.Do you believe that American demand for Chinese goods would actually decline if the RMB were allowed to appreciate against the dollar? Why or why not?

    If the Chinese RMB appreciates against the dollar than American demand for Chinese goods will go down as they seem more expensive. The RMB will have risen relative to the USD. On the other hand Chinese goods might be SO cheap that it would not affect its demand for Chinese goods very much, as they are dependant on it.

    3.Besides American workers and firms, who else suffers from a weak Chinese currency? How could China actually benefit from allowing the RMB to strengthen against the dollar?

    Chinas firms which depend on imports suffer and of course chinese consumers, as the foreign currency seems expensive relative to the domestic currencu. The chinese benefit from a stronger dollar as their costs of production goes down when this "tarriff on imports" is eliminated/reduced. The prices for consumer will be cheaper, which will have a disinflationary affect.

    4.How does China maintain the RMB’s peg against the dollar without buying large quantities of US exports?

    It has a fixed exchange rate with the US dollar which means that its exchange rate is pedged by the government to a certain rate of the dollar.

  6. Bastien Vogton 03 Nov 2009 at 8:33 pm

    2.

    Yes, I believe that demand for Chinese goods would decrease, the reason they are so attractive to US consumers is because they are relatively cheap compared to the US dollar. If the RMB would appreciate US consumers would only import Chinese good with inelastic demand. Meaning the exports from China to America and also other nations would decrease. This would harm the Chinese export industry.

    3.

    Producers all over the world suffer from the weak RMB, it forces them to keep their prices low in order to compete with the RMB, China has such a booming economy because the RMB is so low and manufacturers look to China in order to produce goods and sometimes services and the lowest price.

    China would benefit from a stronger RMB because they could import goods and services at a relatively cheaper price than they do now. However China does not import many goods as it produces most necessary goods and services domestically.

  7. Marenon 04 Nov 2009 at 2:24 am

    1. Because when the value of the dollar is high, Americans will also demand more European goods. And thus, if the the dollar would depreciate, demand for European goods would decrease.

    2. I think the demand for Chinese goods would decrease, but not by a lot. Many firms might have gone out of business due to the cheap imports from China and so those goods cannot be bought in the US anymore. So they will continue to import those from China. Also due to specialization America will need to continue to import goods from China, even though they might be more expensive now.

    3. The Chinese people suffer from it because they cannot buy many goods from the US because they are relatively expensive. So imports are very low and it is also very expensive for Chinese to for example travel to the US. So consumers are hurt by this weak currency. Also as Basti said producers for example from Europe suffer because they have to keep their currency low compared to the dollar so that Americans will still demand their exports.

    4.With the surplus they get from their current account, because they are exporting more than importing, China buys for example US government bonds. This way their money is safe and they will even make more money out of it due to interest, but at the same time they are supplying huge quantities of their currency on the foreign exchange market and thus keeping their currency weak.

  8. Alex Son 04 Nov 2009 at 3:28 am

    2. Do you believe that American demand for Chinese goods would actually decline if the RMB were allowed to appreciate against the dollar? Why or why not?

    Yes, I do believe that American demand for Chinese goods would decline if the RMB were to appreciate against the Dollar. There are several nations, especially in Asia, who would be able to supply cheaper goods and services than China. The only reason that the US is importing so much from China is that the RMB is still so weak compared to the Dollar, allowing US citizens to purchase large amounts of Chinese goods and services. If the RMB appreciates, however, there is nothing to stop the US from importing from other, more to trade favorable nations.

    3. Besides American workers and firms, who else suffers from a weak Chinese currency? How could China actually benefit from allowing the RMB to strengthen against the dollar?

    Many have stated that the weak Chinese currency is bad for the Chinese citizens, simply for the reason that they have to pay higher prices when buying goods and services from the US. Obviously, this is true. However, the weak Chinese currency is not only bad for those who import American goods, but rather for the whole Chinese society. Why? Because of inflation. The weak currency means that imports will be very expensive, and this will drive up prices in the Chinese economy, leading to inflation.

    If the RMB were to appreciate against the Dollar this may benefit China greatly, as low import prices keep inflation down. However, it is still important to remember that a high exchange rate may lead to greater unemployment. China, a giant with one of the world's largest population, needs to continue to decrease its unemployment if it wishes to develop in the future. Its large population is an amazing capital resource that should be used, which will be harder to accomplish if too much is imported from the US.

  9. Aleyaon 04 Nov 2009 at 5:53 am

    1. Why does Europe care about China’s fixed exchange rate with the US dollar?

    Europe would also be affected by a appreciation or deppreciation of the dollar. As soon as the dollar appreciates, Americans will demand more European goods but when it depreciates, the demand for products produced in Europe would decline. A lot of the value of the US dollar depends on the trade between China and the US.

    2. Do you believe that American demand for Chinese goods would actually decline if the RMB were allowed to appreciate against the dollar? Why or why not?

    I agrre with Alex in saying that the demand for Chinese goods in the US would decline if the RMB would appreciate over the dollar. Reason being that there are many other countries in the world, that could supply the US with cheaper products. The competition is too high for the US to be dependent on China for cheap labor and products.

    3. Besides American workers and firms, who else suffers from a weak Chinese currency? How could China actually benefit from allowing the RMB to strengthen against the dollar?

    As we learned in class, a government that is artificially keeping its exchange rate low is supporting its producers and not the consumers. Chinese consumers are affected by the low RMB because foreign goods seem relatively expensive n comparison to domestically produced goods. Other countries are also affected by the low RMB, because it forces them to lower their exchange rate to still be able to compete with China.

  10. Alex Hanon 04 Nov 2009 at 8:04 am

    2) Probably not because the cost of chinese goods will still be significanly lower than those in the US because of low production costs

    3) A disadvantage of weak currencies is inflation. Imported resources will now seem more expensive. Thus the costs of production for China will be higher meaning prices will be higher due to a decrease in supply. As a result Chinese consumers are burdened. Additionally, as Chinese firms are earning high profits. So they are not forced to be as efficient as possible due to lower competition. Hence resources are misallocated. So China as a country could see a disadvantage

  11. Marc Lemannon 04 Nov 2009 at 5:59 pm

    1. Why does Europe care about China’s fixed exchange rate with the US dollar?

    Europe cares about China’s fixed exchange rate with the US dollar because they also trade with both countries. If China would not control its exchange rates, the depreciation of the USD could make importing from the US cheaper, but could be destructive for the industries that export to the US as their products would become more expensive to Americans.

    2. Do you believe that American demand for Chinese goods would actually decline if the RMB were allowed to appreciate against the dollar? Why or why not?

    Initially, as these goods are not produced within the US, the demand for such goods would increase in other nations willing to export to the US as it becomes cheaper to import from other nations. If the new free floating exchange rates did cause the RMB to appreciate greatly to the USD, eventually the toys could become produced within the US, moving the US current account deficit towards a surplus.

    3. Besides American workers and firms, who else suffers from a weak Chinese currency? How could China actually benefit from allowing the RMB to strengthen against the dollar?

    Many suffer from the weak RMB because it destroys their domestic production and causes their nation’s exports to stay low. China could benefit from an appreciating RMB, as it would make its exports more expensive, lead to domestic industry growth, an overall growth in national GDP and an improvement in the standard of living.

    4. How does China maintain the RMB’s peg against the dollar without buying large quantities of US exports?

    China maintains the value of the RMB pegged to the dollar, by buying American assets, with the money surplus they have in their current account. These are non-production “goods” and include government bonds, land and company stocks. Buying these assets does not create American jobs, and worries many Americans that foreigners are gaining too much influence in America.

  12. Rocio Perezon 05 Nov 2009 at 4:17 am

    It makes sense that Europe cares about China's manipulation of the RNB rate as China is a competitor of Europe in trading with the US. Because of the low value, China is a more suitable trading partner for the US.

    I think it would barely decline. Companies in the US rely heavily on Chinese products and materials for the production of their goods (just like with the example of the auto dealers). An appreciation of the RMB is the cost to pay for these companies to continue their businesses. Perhaps smaller companies would be affected the most with the higher costs.

    Chinese consumers suffer from a weak currency because they have a lower purchasing power and their currency buys them less than for example the dollar can.

    China invests in America's financial sector with the dollars that the US pays for China's exports. There is an inflow of dollars into the US keeping the supply of dollars high.

  13. Laura Perezon 17 Nov 2009 at 4:38 am

    1. Since the US and China are such large world economies, their business together affects the rest of the world including Europe. If the RMB weren't pegged to the US dollar then the depreciation of the USD would eventually balance out once American goods start to look attractive the Chinese and Americans would demand less RMB's. This would shift the supply of USD inwards and cause the dollar to appreciate. In other words, the RMB has a lot of power against the dollar and would maintain it at a stable level in the long run. This is why Europeans don't benefit from a fixed exchange rate; the dollar can undergo large fluctuations because the RMB won't counteract this and will fluctuate alongside the dollar.

    2. Yes. This would happen if the dollar depreciated and the RMB appreciated because demand for RMB's is so high and therefore supply in the dollar market in China is also high. This depreciation of the dollar should cause rational American consumers to purchase domestic products before the more expensive Chinese products. However some factors may come into play, such a well-known brand China offers as opposed to some other brand elsewhere that might be cheaper but not one that is recognized by the consumers and therefore unattractive to the public. Although the rational action is to buy the cheaper product, consumers might still continue to buy the Chinese product they are used to them and have been buying their whole life. It is true that the product might cost more to produce in the US than in China because of China's cheap labor, however, as the dollar continues to depreciate there will eventually be a noticeable difference that will result in Americans buying domestic products over Chinese goods.

  14. Axelon 16 Apr 2010 at 4:05 am

    Europeans care about the fixed exchange rate between the Chinese and the US dollar because then less European goods are demanded because the Chinese prices are always lower. I believe if the Chinese RMB was allowed to appreciate then Americans would demand less Chinese goods because the prices would be relatively higher, and therefore they would buy goods form other places instead. China actually also suffers because they have a weak currency because then the Chinese have a smaller spending possibility because they are buying US bonds to keep the exchange rate low. The Chinese suffer because they are making tons of money but cannot use it.

  15. Bjorn Kon 18 Apr 2010 at 9:14 pm

    Europe cares about a fixed exchange rate with the US because the Chinese especially are notorious for keeping their currency, the RMB, extremely low. That way, they are able to increase their exports to other nations extremely, influencing the Chinese GDP. The Europeans would like to have a fixed exchange rate on the RMB because it would balance the trade between China and the rest of the world. While China has a huge trade surplus, the other nations that trade with China have an extreme trade deficit. With a fixed exchange rate, China's trade surplus would decrease and Europe's trade deficit would increase.

  16. Iris Shenon 06 May 2010 at 6:11 am

    Hi Mr.Welker!

    I'm currently working on my econ commentary with this article,

    and I'm kind of stuck with the China buying US assets and financing Americans current account deficit part… and what are their disadvantages ?

    If i wanted to draw a graph to show how in the original FT article, they said Brazil imposed a tax on inflows of foreign capital, in attempt to slow down appreciation, how should it look like ?

    ( similar to a tariff ? how can i draw it so that it can relate to the currency ? )

    Looking forward to hearing from you !

  17. Matthias Arroz Con Pon 30 Nov 2010 at 9:50 am

    1) Europe cares about the fixed exchange rate because since China and the United States are both "key players" in the global economy, the rate consequently affects European trade with these two countries. 2) It is quite an ironic situation that allowing the the RMB to appreciate against the dollar (in my opinion) would decrease the U.S. demand for Chinese goods –> this would happen because within the competitive global market, if labor costs (in this case China's) were to rise as the nation's currency appreciated against our dollar, the United states would be able to find cheaper labor costs elsewhere such as Vietnam or Bangladesh and avoid the rising cost of labor in China. 3) The people who are arguably being hurt the most by China's weak currency are the Chinese citizens who are consumers –> it is very very expensive for them to import goods from other countries such as the Unite States. If China were to let its currency rise it surely has something to gain –> an increase in prices would surely make exports more expensive, however there would be more domestic industry growth = growth in real GDP as well as standard of living within the country as China's citizens have access to lower prices on imports. 4) China maintain's the RMB's "peg" by buying American assets such as stocks and bonds, with the money surplus they have – consequently this allows greater foreign influence on the United States which angers many Americans.

  18. Marcus Aureliuson 30 Nov 2010 at 11:45 am

    As a great Roman Leader, I strongly agree with my Spanish counter-part, Matthias Arroz Con Pollo. Now on to some modern day economics. Lets start with why Europe would care about Chinese and American interactions and the fixed exchange rate. For one, these two countries are the #1 and #2 (could argue which one is #1) economic powers in the world, which means they strongly affect the world economy. Another factor that the Europeans would care about is their interest in U.S. made goods. Many of the goods made in the United States are made with inputs imported from China, so respectively, with a lower cost of inputs for Americans translates to a lower European purchase price. Allowing the RMB to appreciate against the dollar would decrease the U.S. demand for Chinese goods. This would happen because the U.S. would be able to find cheaper labor cost in our 3rd world nations. But however since China does loan a bunch of money to the U.S. government, it might not be a good idea to stab 'em in the back (good 'ol Roman puns). Besides American firms and consumers, the other people who would be hurt by the appreciating RMB vs. the dollar would be the Chinese consumers. They suffer because their current currency would not have the same purchasing power in the future. China maintains the RMB’s peg by acquiring American financial assets which keeps demand for dollars and supply of RMB high. This would cause the dollar to appreciate and the RMB to depreciate.

    – I came, I saw, I conquered. Farewell my Romans!

  19. Marissa Gardon 30 Nov 2010 at 3:27 pm

    2.Do you believe that American demand for Chinese goods would actually decline if the RMB were allowed to appreciate against the dollar? Why or why not?

    I believe that demand for Chinese goods would go down. One of the main reasons we import so much from China is because it is cheaper for the US to do so. If the RMB appreciates against the dollar China's goods would not be so cheap anymore and The US might begin to look in other countries for a cheaper exchange rate than with China.

  20. Jackie L.on 30 Nov 2010 at 3:34 pm

    1. Europe cares about China's fixed exchange rate for the dollar, because they lose out on both benefits. They aren't able to buy the cheap goods and services from China like we are, because China is only keeping the exchange rate down relative to the dollar. They also don't get the benefit of our purchases, because Europe's goods and services are more expensive compared to the fixed low price of the Chinese products in relation to our dollar.

    2. Yes, I do think American demand would decrease if China allowed its currency to act naturally. While it would take some time and adjustment, eventually it would get to the point where it is a complete waste of money to buy Chinese goods and services when they have become so expensive to us. We have become a greedy country, and as long as we still receive a similar product at a similar price, US citizens won't care where it comes from.

    3. Chinese citizens would suffer from the weak Chinese currency. Because their imports are so expensive, prices of goods in China would rise, causing inflation. Other countries would suffer as well, because in order to compete with China's low prices on goods, they would need to keep their currency's exchange rate low, so that the US would still want to import goods from that country.

    4. Instead of buying goods and services from us, they spend their money on American assets. They have a surplus of money from all of our purchases, and they spend it on things such as government bonds and company stocks. This means that while it continues to keep their currency's exchange rate low, it doesn't create any jobs for the US, meaning we can't then export those goods and services.

  21. Lucyon 30 Nov 2010 at 10:07 pm

    I've been reading many accusations, both from people in the US and from leaders at the recent summit meeting, who are accusing Ben Bernanke of purposely trying to depreciate the dollar through QE2. Is this the same kind of 'management' of the value of the dollar as China is doing with the RMB?

    3. China's low exchange rates are bad for the Chinese because it prevents them from making the profit that they could make for on their exports. This prevents China's production from increasing, incomes from rising, and standard of living from improving.

  22. Schutzkuson 07 Dec 2010 at 11:00 am

    If the RMB were allowed to appreciate against the dollar, the American demand for Chinese goods would, of course decline. Though the effect wouldn't be instant, if the RMB were allowed to rise uncontrolled against the USD, the exchange rate would (or could) reach a ridiculous amount, and the whole idea of trading with China for their lower prices would be defeated. We want to trade where we can get the most for the lowest price, and if China no longer offers this, trade with them would decline. This would, of course, not be instantaneous though. Many would wait to see if the USD would catch up with the RMB again, (because people arent going to stop trading with a country because their currency appreciated for a period of time) but if it becomes apparent that this appreciation trend is long lasting, Americans would consider other sources for trade.

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